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Operation Wildfire Case Simulator

Open the Operation Wildfire Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
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Luck—Too early to call
Operation Wildfire Case
Operation Wildfire Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$2.52 — Operation Wildfire Case
Opening it for real costs $5.39 with a key.
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What the Operation Wildfire Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$5.39
Average return$2.99
Expected loss-$2.40
Return rate55.6%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$1.03$0.82
Restricted15.98%$4.09$0.65
Classified3.20%$19.14$0.61
Covert0.64%$98.63$0.63
Knife / Gloves0.26%$106.81$0.28

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $539.00 and returns about $299.46 on average — an expected loss of $239.54.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.4K at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Operation Wildfire Case Contents29 items

Covert0.64%2 items
AK-47 | Fuel InjectorAK-47Fuel Injector$140.82
Classified3.20%3 items
AWP | Elite BuildAWPElite Build$11.80Desert Eagle | Kumicho DragonDesert EagleKumicho Dragon$16.00
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
Dual Berettas | CartelDual BerettasCartel$0.74
Restricted15.98%5 items
FAMAS | ValenceFAMASValence$3.06Five-SeveN | TriumvirateFive-SeveNTriumvirate$1.74Glock-18 | Royal LegionGlock-18Royal Legion$2.33
Covert0.64%2 items
M4A4 | The BattlestarM4A4The Battlestar$27.06
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
MAC-10 | Lapis GatorMAC-10Lapis Gator$0.79
Restricted15.98%5 items
MAG-7 | PraetorianMAG-7Praetorian$1.64MP7 | ImpireMP7Impire$1.79
Classified3.20%3 items
Nova | Hyper BeastNovaHyper Beast$9.89
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
PP-Bizon | Photic ZonePP-BizonPhotic Zone$0.66SSG 08 | NecroposSSG 08Necropos$0.60Tec-9 | JambiyaTec-9Jambiya$0.61USP-S | Lead ConduitUSP-SLead Conduit$0.95
Knife / Gloves0.26%13 items
Bowie Knife | Blue SteelBowie KnifeBlue Steel$95.08Bowie Knife | Boreal ForestBowie KnifeBoreal Forest$49.25Bowie Knife | Case HardenedBowie KnifeCase Hardened$128.20Bowie Knife | Crimson WebBowie KnifeCrimson Web$100.17Bowie Knife | FadeBowie KnifeFade$256.41Bowie Knife | Forest DDPATBowie KnifeForest DDPAT$46.52Bowie Knife | NightBowie KnifeNight$62.56Bowie Knife | Safari MeshBowie KnifeSafari Mesh$44.74Bowie Knife | ScorchedBowie KnifeScorched$49.32Bowie Knife | SlaughterBowie KnifeSlaughter$174.24Bowie Knife | StainedBowie KnifeStained$65.10Bowie Knife | Urban MaskedBowie KnifeUrban Masked$53.94Bowie Knife | VanillaBowie KnifeVanilla$79.23
Operation Wildfire Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Operation Wildfire Case

The Operation Wildfire Case costs $2.90 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $5.39 per open. At live market prices it returns $2.99 on average, which is 56c back per dollar — an expected loss of $2.40 every time you open one.

It contains 16 weapon skins and 13 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.4K at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Operation Wildfire Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Operation Wildfire Case returns about $2.99 per open against a cost of $5.39 ($2.90 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 56c back per dollar, an expected loss of $2.40 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Operation Wildfire Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Operation Wildfire Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.4K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Operation Wildfire Case?

The Operation Wildfire Case contains 16 weapon skins plus 13 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Operation Wildfire Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Operation Wildfire Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices