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Shadow Case Simulator

Open the Shadow Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
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Spent$0.00
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Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Shadow Case
Shadow Case

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What the Shadow Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$4.26
Average return$13.21
Expected gain+$8.95
Return rate310.1%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$8.46$6.76
Restricted15.98%$26.19$4.19
Classified3.20%$22.15$0.71
Covert0.64%$211.56$1.35
Knife / Gloves0.26%$78.01$0.20

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $426.00 and returns about $1.3K on average — an expected loss of $895.23.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.1Kat this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Shadow Case Contents34 items

AK-47 | Frontside MistyAK-47 | Frontside Misty$16.22Dual Berettas | Dualing DragonsDual Berettas | Dualing Dragons$0.38FAMAS | Survivor ZFAMAS | Survivor Z$0.37G3SG1 | FluxG3SG1 | Flux$7.19Galil AR | Stone ColdGalil AR | Stone Cold$2.43Glock-18 | WraithsGlock-18 | Wraiths$83.83M249 | Nebula CrusaderM249 | Nebula Crusader$1.41M4A1-S | Golden CoilM4A1-S | Golden Coil$423.17MAC-10 | RangeenMAC-10 | Rangeen$0.37MAG-7 | Cobalt CoreMAG-7 | Cobalt Core$0.33MP7 | Special DeliveryMP7 | Special Delivery$1.14P250 | WingshotP250 | Wingshot$1.33SCAR-20 | Green MarineSCAR-20 | Green Marine$0.29SSG 08 | Big IronSSG 08 | Big Iron$8.70USP-S | Kill ConfirmedUSP-S | Kill Confirmed$437.97XM1014 | ScumbriaXM1014 | Scumbria$0.33
Special Items (0.26%)
Shadow Daggers | Blue SteelShadow Daggers | Blue Steel$58.90Shadow Daggers | Boreal ForestShadow Daggers | Boreal Forest$42.71Shadow Daggers | Case HardenedShadow Daggers | Case Hardened$82.08Shadow Daggers | Crimson WebShadow Daggers | Crimson Web$66.17Shadow Daggers | Damascus SteelShadow Daggers | Damascus Steel$47.40Shadow Daggers | FadeShadow Daggers | Fade$248.73Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPATShadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT$41.75Shadow Daggers | Marble FadeShadow Daggers | Marble Fade$119.90Shadow Daggers | NightShadow Daggers | Night$44.00Shadow Daggers | Rust CoatShadow Daggers | Rust Coat$48.12Shadow Daggers | Safari MeshShadow Daggers | Safari Mesh$40.63Shadow Daggers | ScorchedShadow Daggers | Scorched$46.84Shadow Daggers | SlaughterShadow Daggers | Slaughter$113.83Shadow Daggers | StainedShadow Daggers | Stained$56.62Shadow Daggers | Tiger ToothShadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth$109.00Shadow Daggers | UltravioletShadow Daggers | Ultraviolet$45.42Shadow Daggers | Urban MaskedShadow Daggers | Urban Masked$45.07Shadow Daggers | VanillaShadow Daggers | Vanilla$68.34
Shadow Caseprices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Shadow Case

The Shadow Case costs $1.77 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $4.26 per open. At live market prices it returns $13.21 on average, which is 310c back per dollar — an expected gain of $8.95 every time you open one.

It contains 16 weapon skins and 18 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1Kat this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Shadow Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Shadow Case returns about $13.21 per open against a cost of $4.26 ($1.77 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 310c back per dollar, an expected gain of $8.95 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Shadow Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Shadow Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Shadow Case?

The Shadow Case contains 16 weapon skins plus 18 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Shadow Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Shadow Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices