CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

A trade-up contract is a built-in CS2 feature that lets you exchange 10 skins of the same quality tier for 1 random skin of the next higher tier. For example, trading 10 Mil-Spec skins gives you 1 Restricted skin. The output skin is randomly selected from the same weapon cases or collections as your input skins, weighted by how many inputs come from each case.

Our calculator simulates a trade-up contract before you execute it in-game. Select your 10 input skins from the browser panel, and the calculator instantly shows you every possible outcome with its exact probability, the expected value (EV) of the trade-up, your projected profit or loss, and — if you enter float values — the predicted output float and exterior quality. This lets you make informed decisions and avoid losing money on bad trade-ups.

Probabilities are based on the weapon cases (or collections) of your input skins. Each input adds probability weight toward outcomes from its case. For example, if 7 of your 10 inputs are from the Revolution Case and 3 are from the Kilowatt Case, Revolution Case outcomes collectively have a 70% chance and Kilowatt Case outcomes have 30%. Within each case, the probability is split equally among all unique outcome skins from that case.

Since the October 2024 Retakes Update, CS2 uses a normalized float formula. Each input skin's float is normalized to its own float range (0 = minimum, 1 = maximum for that skin), all normalized values are averaged, and the result is applied to the output skin's float range. Lower float inputs generally produce lower float outputs, which can mean a Factory New result instead of Minimal Wear — often a significant price difference. Enter your float values in the calculator to see the exact predicted output float.

Expected Value is the average amount you'd receive if you performed the same trade-up thousands of times. It's calculated by multiplying each possible outcome's market price by its probability and summing the results. If the EV is higher than your total input cost, the trade-up is "EV-positive" — meaning it's profitable on average. However, individual results can still vary significantly due to randomness.

No. All 10 input skins must be either all Normal or all StatTrak — you cannot mix them. A StatTrak trade-up always produces a StatTrak output, and a normal trade-up always produces a normal output. StatTrak skins are generally more expensive, so StatTrak trade-ups have higher stakes but can also yield higher-value results.

Covert trade-ups are unique: they require only 5 skins instead of 10, and the output can be a Knife or Gloves. The specific Knives and Gloves you can receive depend on which weapon cases your Covert input skins originate from. These trade-ups are high-risk, high-reward — input costs can be steep, but hitting a rare Knife can yield massive profit.

No. Souvenir skins are not eligible for trade-up contracts. Only regular (non-Souvenir) and StatTrak skins can be used. Souvenir skins have their own market dynamics and generally hold value differently than regular skins.

You can trade up from any tier except the highest. The progression is: Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert → Knife/Gloves. Each tier requires 10 input skins (except Covert, which requires 5). Use the tier dropdown in the skin browser to switch between tiers.

Look for trade-ups where the Expected Value exceeds your total input cost (positive profit margin). Key strategies: use cheap skins from cases that have expensive next-tier outcomes, stack inputs from a single case to concentrate probability on specific outcomes, and use low-float inputs when the Factory New version of an outcome skin is significantly more expensive than other exteriors. Our calculator makes it easy to experiment with different combinations.