CS2 Trade-Up Calculator

A trade-up contract is a built-in CS2 feature that lets you exchange 10 skins of the same quality tier for 1 random skin of the next higher tier. For example, trading 10 Mil-Spec skins gives you 1 Restricted skin. The output skin is randomly selected from the same weapon cases or collections as your input skins, weighted by how many inputs come from each case.

Our calculator simulates a trade-up contract before you execute it in-game. Select your 10 input skins from the browser panel, and the calculator instantly shows you every possible outcome with its exact probability, the expected value (EV) of the trade-up, your projected profit or loss, and — if you enter float values — the predicted output float and exterior quality. This lets you make informed decisions and avoid losing money on bad trade-ups.

Probabilities are based on the weapon cases (or collections) of your input skins. Each input adds probability weight toward outcomes from its case. For example, if 7 of your 10 inputs are from the Revolution Case and 3 are from the Kilowatt Case, Revolution Case outcomes collectively have a 70% chance and Kilowatt Case outcomes have 30%. Within each case, the probability is split equally among all unique outcome skins from that case.

Since the October 2024 Retakes Update, CS2 uses a normalized float formula. Each input skin's float is normalized to its own float range (0 = minimum, 1 = maximum for that skin), all normalized values are averaged, and the result is applied to the output skin's float range. Lower float inputs generally produce lower float outputs, which can mean a Factory New result instead of Minimal Wear — often a significant price difference. Enter your float values in the calculator to see the exact predicted output float.

Expected Value is the average amount you'd receive if you performed the same trade-up thousands of times. It's calculated by multiplying each possible outcome's market price by its probability and summing the results. If the EV is higher than your total input cost, the trade-up is "EV-positive" — meaning it's profitable on average. However, individual results can still vary significantly due to randomness.

No. All 10 input skins must be either all Normal or all StatTrak — you cannot mix them. A StatTrak trade-up always produces a StatTrak output, and a normal trade-up always produces a normal output. StatTrak skins are generally more expensive, so StatTrak trade-ups have higher stakes but can also yield higher-value results.

Covert trade-ups are unique: they require only 5 skins instead of 10, and the output can be a Knife or Gloves. The specific Knives and Gloves you can receive depend on which weapon cases your Covert input skins originate from. These trade-ups are high-risk, high-reward — input costs can be steep, but hitting a rare Knife can yield massive profit.

Yes, since the May 2026 update. Souvenir skins can be selected alongside normal skins, but they lose all souvenir attributes (gold stickers and match details) and count as one rarity higher than the rest of the inputs. The output is always a normal skin — a trade-up can never produce a souvenir. This calculator currently models normal and StatTrak inputs only.

You can trade up from any tier except the highest. The progression is: Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec → Restricted → Classified → Covert → Knife/Gloves. Each tier requires 10 input skins (except Covert, which requires 5). Use the tier dropdown in the skin browser to switch between tiers.

Use the "What is actually worth trading up right now" section on this page. It scores every collection — at every rarity, or just the one you have selected in the skin picker — as the simplest possible contract: 10 copies of one skin, all from the same case (5 for Covert). The contracts are ranked either by how often they pay or by average return, and every result loads straight into the calculator so you can change wears, mix cases and enter real float values. The manual version of the same search: use cheap inputs from cases with expensive next-tier skins, keep every input in one collection so the probability is concentrated, and buy low floats when the Factory New version of a possible result is worth much more than the other exteriors.

Most are not, and that is the honest answer. The market prices skins with trade-ups in mind, so the majority of contracts have a negative expected value — you get back less than you paid, on average. Profitable contracts exist and appear when prices drift out of line, usually for a few days at a time, which is why this page ranks them live rather than publishing a fixed list. Two things separate a real opportunity from a trap: the contract has to clear roughly 15% just to cover Steam's sale fee, and it has to pay often enough that you are not relying on one rare result to rescue a run of losses.

Yes, and it is the single most common reason a trade-up that looked profitable was not. Steam Market prices are what a buyer pays; the seller receives that price divided by 1.15, because a 10% Steam fee and a 5% CS2 fee are added on top of the seller's cut. So a contract with a +10% expected margin is a loss once you sell the result, and you need roughly +15% just to break even. The calculator shows both figures — before fees and after fees — so the difference is visible rather than discovered later. Trading the output away instead of selling it avoids the fee, but adds trade risk.

A single-collection contract at a low rarity. Put all 10 inputs into skins from one case or collection, so every possible result comes from that one pool and you can read the complete list of what you might get. Start at Consumer, Industrial or Mil-Spec, where a whole contract costs a few dollars, so a bad result teaches you something cheaply. Avoid Covert (knife and glove) contracts until you understand expected value — the inputs are expensive, and the appeal is a rare, high-value result, which is exactly the shape of trade-up that loses most people money.