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Falchion Case Simulator

Open the Falchion Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Falchion Case
Falchion Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$1.34 — Falchion Case
Opening it for real costs $4.03 with a key.
1x

What the Falchion Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$4.03
Average return$2.00
Expected loss-$2.03
Return rate49.7%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$0.94$0.75
Restricted15.98%$2.42$0.39
Classified3.20%$8.62$0.28
Covert0.64%$45.66$0.29
Knife / Gloves0.26%$115.99$0.30

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $403.00 and returns about $200.34 on average — an expected loss of $202.66.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.1K at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Falchion Case Contents29 items

Covert0.64%2 items
AK-47 | Aquamarine RevengeAK-47Aquamarine Revenge$36.28AWP | Hyper BeastAWPHyper Beast$31.63
Classified3.20%3 items
CZ75-Auto | Yellow JacketCZ75-AutoYellow Jacket$4.03
Restricted15.98%5 items
FAMAS | Neural NetFAMASNeural Net$0.78
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
Galil AR | Rocket PopGalil ARRocket Pop$1.14Glock-18 | Bunsen BurnerGlock-18Bunsen Burner$0.81
Restricted15.98%5 items
M4A4 | Evil DaimyoM4A4Evil Daimyo$2.80
Classified3.20%3 items
MP7 | NemesisMP7Nemesis$6.72
Restricted15.98%5 items
MP9 | Ruby Poison DartMP9Ruby Poison Dart$1.11Negev | LoudmouthNegevLoudmouth$0.84
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
Nova | RangerNovaRanger$0.52
Restricted15.98%5 items
P2000 | HandgunP2000Handgun$0.85
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
P90 | Elite BuildP90Elite Build$0.49
Classified3.20%3 items
SG 553 | CyrexSG 553Cyrex$4.34
Mil-Spec79.92%6 items
UMP-45 | RiotUMP-45Riot$0.49USP-S | TorqueUSP-STorque$0.67
Knife / Gloves0.26%13 items
Falchion Knife | Blue SteelFalchion KnifeBlue Steel$119.87Falchion Knife | Boreal ForestFalchion KnifeBoreal Forest$60.55Falchion Knife | Case HardenedFalchion KnifeCase Hardened$148.08Falchion Knife | Crimson WebFalchion KnifeCrimson Web$110.53Falchion Knife | FadeFalchion KnifeFade$290.58Falchion Knife | Forest DDPATFalchion KnifeForest DDPAT$57.17Falchion Knife | NightFalchion KnifeNight$65.63Falchion Knife | Safari MeshFalchion KnifeSafari Mesh$52.37Falchion Knife | ScorchedFalchion KnifeScorched$57.28Falchion Knife | SlaughterFalchion KnifeSlaughter$179.74Falchion Knife | StainedFalchion KnifeStained$75.82Falchion Knife | Urban MaskedFalchion KnifeUrban Masked$65.94Falchion Knife | VanillaFalchion KnifeVanilla$103.01
Falchion Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Falchion Case

The Falchion Case costs $1.54 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $4.03 per open. At live market prices it returns $2.00 on average, which is 50c back per dollar — an expected loss of $2.03 every time you open one.

It contains 16 weapon skins and 13 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1K at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Falchion Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Falchion Case returns about $2.00 per open against a cost of $4.03 ($1.54 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 50c back per dollar, an expected loss of $2.03 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Falchion Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Falchion Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Falchion Case?

The Falchion Case contains 16 weapon skins plus 13 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Falchion Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Falchion Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices