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Falchion Case Simulator

Open the Falchion Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Falchion Case
Falchion Case

Press Space or click Open Case

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What the Falchion Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$4.10
Average return$28.00
Expected gain+$23.90
Return rate682.9%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$15.41$12.31
Restricted15.98%$88.80$14.19
Classified3.20%$8.34$0.27
Covert0.64%$143.29$0.92
Knife / Gloves0.26%$120.32$0.31

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $410.00 and returns about $2.8K on average — an expected loss of $2.4K.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.1Kat this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Falchion Case Contents34 items

AK-47 | Aquamarine RevengeAK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge$229.42AWP | Hyper BeastAWP | Hyper Beast$33.65CZ75-Auto | Yellow JacketCZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket$4.13FAMAS | Neural NetFAMAS | Neural Net$0.92Galil AR | Rocket PopGalil AR | Rocket Pop$1.12Glock-18 | Bunsen BurnerGlock-18 | Bunsen Burner$0.89M4A4 | Evil DaimyoM4A4 | Evil Daimyo$3.25MP7 | NemesisMP7 | Nemesis$7.53MP9 | Ruby Poison DartMP9 | Ruby Poison Dart$1.24Negev | LoudmouthNegev | Loudmouth$0.83Nova | RangerNova | Ranger$0.56P2000 | HandgunP2000 | Handgun$1.02P90 | Elite BuildP90 | Elite Build$0.57SG 553 | CyrexSG 553 | Cyrex$4.10UMP-45 | RiotUMP-45 | Riot$0.62USP-S | TorqueUSP-S | Torque$0.70
Special Items (0.26%)
Falchion Knife | Blue SteelFalchion Knife | Blue Steel$126.14Falchion Knife | Boreal ForestFalchion Knife | Boreal Forest$60.71Falchion Knife | Case HardenedFalchion Knife | Case Hardened$162.34Falchion Knife | Crimson WebFalchion Knife | Crimson Web$115.67Falchion Knife | Damascus SteelFalchion Knife | Damascus Steel$87.26Falchion Knife | FadeFalchion Knife | Fade$269.80Falchion Knife | Forest DDPATFalchion Knife | Forest DDPAT$57.72Falchion Knife | Marble FadeFalchion Knife | Marble Fade$263.66Falchion Knife | NightFalchion Knife | Night$68.18Falchion Knife | Rust CoatFalchion Knife | Rust Coat$71.63Falchion Knife | Safari MeshFalchion Knife | Safari Mesh$57.23Falchion Knife | ScorchedFalchion Knife | Scorched$61.90Falchion Knife | SlaughterFalchion Knife | Slaughter$187.22Falchion Knife | StainedFalchion Knife | Stained$76.50Falchion Knife | Tiger ToothFalchion Knife | Tiger Tooth$184.05Falchion Knife | UltravioletFalchion Knife | Ultraviolet$74.70Falchion Knife | Urban MaskedFalchion Knife | Urban Masked$67.10Falchion Knife | VanillaFalchion Knife | Vanilla$111.90
Falchion Caseprices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Falchion Case

The Falchion Case costs $1.61 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $4.10 per open. At live market prices it returns $28.00 on average, which is 683c back per dollar — an expected gain of $23.90 every time you open one.

It contains 16 weapon skins and 18 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1Kat this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Falchion Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Falchion Case returns about $28.00 per open against a cost of $4.10 ($1.61 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 683c back per dollar, an expected gain of $23.90 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Falchion Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Falchion Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.1K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Falchion Case?

The Falchion Case contains 16 weapon skins plus 18 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Falchion Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Falchion Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices