What is actually worth trading up right now
Every CS2 collection, at every rarity, scored as the simplest trade-up contract there is: ten copies of one skin, all from the same case. Inputs are costed at the cheapest live listing across 23 marketplaces — not at an average nobody actually pays — and results are valued at our cross-market price.
65 contracts currently return more than they cost, after fees, out of 409 collections scanned. Most trade-ups lose money; these are the exceptions, and they close quickly.
Ranked by how often the contract hands back something worth more than it cost. This is the honest answer to "what actually works" — a contract that pays half the time is a different proposition from one that pays twice in fifty, however good its average looks.
The Radiant Collection · Industrial GradeFAMAS | Grey GhostBuy 10 × Battle-Scarred @ $0.01 on BUFF163- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 6 of 6 results beat cost
- Costs
- $0.10 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $0.16 +55.1% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) $0.33 at 16.7% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $0.46
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 6 of 6 results beat cost
- Costs
- $0.10 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $0.14 +36.2% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Well-Worn) $0.20 at 16.7% — worth most on Waxpeer at $0.37
The 2021 Vertigo Collection · ClassifiedSG 553 | Hazard PayBuy 10 × Field-Tested @ $135.31 on SkinSwap- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 1 of 1 results beat cost
- Costs
- $1,353.10 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $6,671.79 +393.1% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) $7,672.56 at 100.0% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $11,793.08
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 2 of 2 results beat cost
- Costs
- $427.20 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $1,685.38 +294.5% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear) $2,975.70 at 50.0% — worth most on CSFloat at $4,444.00
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 4 of 4 results beat cost
- Costs
- $1.20 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $4.41 +267.8% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: AWP | Acheron (Factory New) $14.10 at 25.0% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $19.46
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 5 of 5 results beat cost
- Costs
- $3.30 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $10.37 +214.2% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) $16.48 at 20.0% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $23.45
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · RestrictedXM1014 | Zombie OffensiveBuy 10 × Factory New @ $0.60 on SkinRave- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 3 of 3 results beat cost
- Costs
- $6.00 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $14.61 +143.5% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) $17.58 at 33.3% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $24.43
The 2021 Dust 2 Collection · Industrial GradeM249 | Midnight PalmBuy 10 × Field-Tested @ $0.36 on SkinRave- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 4 of 4 results beat cost
- Costs
- $3.60 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $8.07 +124.2% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) $10.38 at 25.0% — worth most on Skinport at $22.45
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 2 of 2 results beat cost
- Costs
- $105.70 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $226.26 +114.1% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: SSG 08 | Death Strike (Well-Worn) $324.90 at 50.0% — worth most on Skinflow at $551.84
The Operation Riptide Collection · RestrictedMAG-7 | BI83 SpectrumBuy 10 × Factory New @ $3.54 on SkinRave- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 3 of 3 results beat cost
- Costs
- $35.40 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $73.42 +107.4% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New) $135.79 at 33.3% — worth most on DMarket at $222.75
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 3 of 3 results beat cost
- Costs
- $62.70 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $129.45 +106.5% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New) $236.98 at 33.3% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $466.06
- Chance of profit
- 100.0% 3 of 3 results beat cost
- Costs
- $20.60 10 skins
- Returns on average
- $42.03 +104.0% after fees
Pays more often than notBest result: M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) $60.60 at 33.3% — worth most on CLASH.GG at $85.45
How these are worked out
- The contract
- Ten skins of one rarity from one collection (five for Covert), all the same listing. Keeping every input in one collection concentrates the odds on that collection’s next-rarity skins, which is what makes the outcome list short enough to read — and it is the contract a person can go and buy in one visit rather than assemble across six markets.
- What it costs
- The cheapest live listing we can see for that exact skin and wear, across every marketplace we track, checked against our own cross-market price so a single mistyped listing cannot invent an opportunity. Where nothing is listed anywhere, the card says so and falls back to the cross-market price.
- What it returns
- Each possible result is valued at our cross-market price, not at the dearest ask. Costing the inputs at the low end and valuing the results at the high end would book the entire spread between marketplaces as profit, on every contract, and the effect would be largest exactly where the data is thinnest. The dearest ask is still shown beside each result, as upside.
- The float
- Every input is assumed to arrive in the middle of its wear band, which sets the predicted output float and therefore which exterior — and which price — each result lands on. Buying below the midpoint moves these numbers in your favour. Open a contract in the trade-up calculator and enter the real floats to see what your own copies do.
- The fee
- Every price here is a price somebody is asking. Sell on Steam and you keep roughly price / 1.15; third-party marketplaces take less, commonly 5–10%. So a contract has to clear about 15% before anyone running it is actually up, which is why the fee is taken off by default.
This is a price scan, not advice. Prices move, listings vanish, and a contract that reads +20% here can be gone by the time you have bought the tenth input. Trade-ups are gambling with a spreadsheet attached: the odds column is the number that tells you how often you actually walk away up.
Frequently Asked Questions
What this ranking is doing, and what it is not.
Are any CS2 trade-ups actually profitable right now?
Usually a handful, rarely many. The market prices skins with trade-ups in mind, so most contracts have a negative expected value by design. Opportunities appear when prices drift out of line — a collection’s inputs get dumped, or one of its next-rarity skins spikes — and they close within days. That is why this page ranks live rather than publishing a fixed list, and why the count of profitable contracts at the top is often small or zero.
How is "worth trading up" decided?
Two numbers, shown side by side because they disagree. Chance of profit is the share of the time the contract returns a skin worth more than the inputs cost. Average return is expected value against cost — the mean over many attempts. A contract can have a fantastic average and pay twice in fifty, because one rare, expensive result carries the whole mean. If you are running one contract, rank by odds. If you are running fifty, the average starts to matter.
Where do the prices come from?
Inputs are costed at the cheapest live listing for that exact skin and wear across every marketplace we track, because that is what you would actually pay — nobody buys at an average. Each quote is checked against our own cross-market price so one mistyped listing cannot invent an opportunity, and stale, out-of-stock and sticker-inflated listings are excluded. Results are valued at the cross-market price rather than at the dearest ask, so the spread between marketplaces is not counted as profit.
Why is the Steam fee taken off by default?
Because every price on this page is a price someone is asking, and a seller does not receive the asking price. On the Steam Community Market the buyer pays the listing price and the seller receives it divided by 1.15, since a 10% Steam fee and a 5% CS2 fee are added on top. So a contract with a +10% margin is a loss. Third-party marketplaces take less — commonly 5 to 10% — which is why the allowance here is described as approximate and can be switched off to see the gross figures.
What does float have to do with it?
Everything, on the results side. Since the October 2024 Retakes Update the output float is the average of the inputs’ normalised floats, applied to the output skin’s own range — so lower-float inputs produce lower-float results, and the difference between a Field-Tested and a Factory New version of the same skin is often most of its price. These rankings assume every input arrives in the middle of its wear band, which is what you get buying that exterior blind. Hunting lower floats moves the numbers in your favour.
Can I just copy one of these contracts?
That is what the "Build this one" button on the trade-up calculator does — it fills all ten slots with the listing named on the card. Do check it before committing: enter the real float values of the copies you actually bought, since those change which exterior the result lands in and therefore what it is worth. Also re-check the prices. A contract that reads +20% here can be gone by the time you have bought the tenth input.
Why are all ten inputs from the same collection?
Because that is what makes the odds readable. Trade-up probability is apportioned by the case or collection your inputs come from: ten inputs from one collection means every possible result is one of that collection’s next-rarity skins, split evenly. Mix two collections and you get a longer, messier outcome list with the probability spread across it. Mixed contracts can beat single-collection ones, and the trade-up calculator will price any mix you like — but they are also where the odds get quietly worse than people expect.