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Fever Case Simulator

Open the Fever Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Fever Case
Fever Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$0.56 — Fever Case
Opening it for real costs $3.12 with a key.
1x

What the Fever Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$3.12
Average return$1.20
Expected loss-$1.92
Return rate38.5%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$0.17$0.13
Restricted15.98%$0.72$0.12
Classified3.20%$5.56$0.18
Covert0.64%$48.21$0.31
Knife / Gloves0.26%$179.83$0.47

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $312.00 and returns about $120.11 on average — an expected loss of $191.89.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $833.04 at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Fever Case Contents45 items

Mil-Spec79.92%7 items
M4A4 | ChoppaM4A4Choppa$0.11MAG-7 | ResupplyMAG-7Resupply$0.11MP9 | NexusMP9Nexus$0.12P2000 | Sure GripP2000Sure Grip$0.09SSG 08 | MemorialSSG 08Memorial$0.13USP-S | PC-GRNUSP-SPC-GRN$0.12XM1014 | MockingbirdXM1014Mockingbird$0.10
Covert0.64%2 items
AWP | PrintstreamAWPPrintstream$42.77FAMAS | Bad TripFAMASBad Trip$42.43
Classified3.20%3 items
AK-47 | Searing RageAK-47Searing Rage$4.68Glock-18 | ShinobuGlock-18Shinobu$4.53UMP-45 | K.O. FactoryUMP-45K.O. Factory$4.54
Restricted15.98%5 items
Desert Eagle | Serpent StrikeDesert EagleSerpent Strike$0.48Galil AR | ControlGalil ARControl$0.47Nova | Rising SunNovaRising Sun$0.48P90 | Wave BreakerP90Wave Breaker$0.48Zeus x27 | TosaiZeus x27Tosai$0.46
Knife / Gloves0.26%28 items
Nomad Knife | VanillaNomad KnifeVanilla$125.25Paracord Knife | VanillaParacord KnifeVanilla$48.20Skeleton Knife | VanillaSkeleton KnifeVanilla$214.75Survival Knife | VanillaSurvival KnifeVanilla$46.91Nomad Knife | Damascus SteelNomad KnifeDamascus Steel$120.52Nomad Knife | DopplerNomad KnifeDoppler$461.20Nomad Knife | Marble FadeNomad KnifeMarble Fade$306.74Nomad Knife | Rust CoatNomad KnifeRust Coat$109.44Nomad Knife | Tiger ToothNomad KnifeTiger Tooth$224.40Nomad Knife | UltravioletNomad KnifeUltraviolet$115.73Paracord Knife | Damascus SteelParacord KnifeDamascus Steel$59.29Paracord Knife | DopplerParacord KnifeDoppler$758.63Paracord Knife | Marble FadeParacord KnifeMarble Fade$170.42Paracord Knife | Rust CoatParacord KnifeRust Coat$50.59Paracord Knife | Tiger ToothParacord KnifeTiger Tooth$125.24Paracord Knife | UltravioletParacord KnifeUltraviolet$60.73Skeleton Knife | Damascus SteelSkeleton KnifeDamascus Steel$186.40Skeleton Knife | DopplerSkeleton KnifeDoppler$777.73Skeleton Knife | Marble FadeSkeleton KnifeMarble Fade$431.52Skeleton Knife | Rust CoatSkeleton KnifeRust Coat$157.06Skeleton Knife | Tiger ToothSkeleton KnifeTiger Tooth$354.54Skeleton Knife | UltravioletSkeleton KnifeUltraviolet$176.76Survival Knife | Damascus SteelSurvival KnifeDamascus Steel$54.04Survival Knife | DopplerSurvival KnifeDoppler$309.14Survival Knife | Marble FadeSurvival KnifeMarble Fade$153.84Survival Knife | Rust CoatSurvival KnifeRust Coat$51.07Survival Knife | Tiger ToothSurvival KnifeTiger Tooth$130.44Survival Knife | UltravioletSurvival KnifeUltraviolet$54.41
Fever Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Fever Case

The Fever Case costs $0.63 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $3.12 per open. At live market prices it returns $1.20 on average, which is 38c back per dollar — an expected loss of $1.92 every time you open one.

It contains 17 weapon skins and 28 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $833.04 at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Fever Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Fever Case returns about $1.20 per open against a cost of $3.12 ($0.63 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 38c back per dollar, an expected loss of $1.92 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Fever Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Fever Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $833.04 at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Fever Case?

The Fever Case contains 17 weapon skins plus 28 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Fever Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Fever Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices