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Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Simulator

Open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$3.97 — Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Opening it for real costs $7.19 with a key.
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What the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$7.19
Average return$4.31
Expected loss-$2.88
Return rate60.0%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$1.69$1.35
Restricted15.98%$7.02$1.12
Classified3.20%$13.12$0.42
Covert0.64%$87.93$0.56
Knife / Gloves0.26%$329.23$0.86

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $719.00 and returns about $431.19 on average — an expected loss of $287.81.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.9K at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Contents79 items

Covert0.64%2 items
AK-47 | Wasteland RebelAK-47Wasteland Rebel$77.78
Mil-Spec79.92%5 items
Five-SeveN | Urban HazardFive-SeveNUrban Hazard$2.46G3SG1 | MurkyG3SG1Murky$0.62
Restricted15.98%4 items
Glock-18 | GrinderGlock-18Grinder$2.36M4A1-S | BasiliskM4A1-SBasilisk$7.74M4A4 | GriffinM4A4Griffin$2.76
Mil-Spec79.92%5 items
MAG-7 | FirestarterMAG-7Firestarter$0.62MP9 | DartMP9Dart$0.69
Covert0.64%2 items
P2000 | Fire ElementalP2000Fire Elemental$78.68
Classified3.20%3 items
P250 | CartelP250Cartel$8.76
Restricted15.98%4 items
Sawed-Off | HighwaymanSawed-OffHighwayman$1.57
Classified3.20%3 items
SCAR-20 | CardiacSCAR-20Cardiac$9.08
Mil-Spec79.92%5 items
UMP-45 | DelusionUMP-45Delusion$0.69
Classified3.20%3 items
XM1014 | TranquilityXM1014Tranquility$8.40
Knife / Gloves0.26%65 items
Bayonet | Blue SteelBayonetBlue Steel$196.85Bayonet | Boreal ForestBayonetBoreal Forest$121.96Bayonet | Case HardenedBayonetCase Hardened$238.12Bayonet | Crimson WebBayonetCrimson Web$179.55Bayonet | FadeBayonetFade$476.97Bayonet | Forest DDPATBayonetForest DDPAT$125.37Bayonet | NightBayonetNight$130.85Bayonet | Safari MeshBayonetSafari Mesh$119.03Bayonet | ScorchedBayonetScorched$121.68Bayonet | SlaughterBayonetSlaughter$279.61Bayonet | StainedBayonetStained$143.39Bayonet | Urban MaskedBayonetUrban Masked$125.13Flip Knife | Blue SteelFlip KnifeBlue Steel$155.69Flip Knife | Boreal ForestFlip KnifeBoreal Forest$111.73Flip Knife | Case HardenedFlip KnifeCase Hardened$160.87Flip Knife | Crimson WebFlip KnifeCrimson Web$186.02Flip Knife | FadeFlip KnifeFade$399.55Flip Knife | Forest DDPATFlip KnifeForest DDPAT$111.76Flip Knife | NightFlip KnifeNight$131.68Flip Knife | Safari MeshFlip KnifeSafari Mesh$113.28Flip Knife | ScorchedFlip KnifeScorched$122.50Flip Knife | SlaughterFlip KnifeSlaughter$261.25Flip Knife | StainedFlip KnifeStained$130.50Flip Knife | Urban MaskedFlip KnifeUrban Masked$119.21Gut Knife | Blue SteelGut KnifeBlue Steel$64.83Gut Knife | Boreal ForestGut KnifeBoreal Forest$43.46Gut Knife | Case HardenedGut KnifeCase Hardened$99.13Gut Knife | Crimson WebGut KnifeCrimson Web$66.99Gut Knife | FadeGut KnifeFade$156.01Gut Knife | Forest DDPATGut KnifeForest DDPAT$42.74Gut Knife | NightGut KnifeNight$46.76Gut Knife | Safari MeshGut KnifeSafari Mesh$41.63Gut Knife | ScorchedGut KnifeScorched$44.70Gut Knife | SlaughterGut KnifeSlaughter$112.87Gut Knife | StainedGut KnifeStained$53.16Gut Knife | Urban MaskedGut KnifeUrban Masked$45.09Karambit | Blue SteelKarambitBlue Steel$743.96Karambit | Boreal ForestKarambitBoreal Forest$403.82Karambit | Case HardenedKarambitCase Hardened$729.57Karambit | Crimson WebKarambitCrimson Web$638.34Karambit | FadeKarambitFade$2.1KKarambit | Forest DDPATKarambitForest DDPAT$396.35Karambit | NightKarambitNight$506.59Karambit | Safari MeshKarambitSafari Mesh$384.34Karambit | ScorchedKarambitScorched$425.99Karambit | SlaughterKarambitSlaughter$874.11Karambit | StainedKarambitStained$544.01Karambit | Urban MaskedKarambitUrban Masked$416.50M9 Bayonet | Blue SteelM9 BayonetBlue Steel$496.13M9 Bayonet | Boreal ForestM9 BayonetBoreal Forest$282.69M9 Bayonet | Case HardenedM9 BayonetCase Hardened$487.56M9 Bayonet | Crimson WebM9 BayonetCrimson Web$435.93M9 Bayonet | FadeM9 BayonetFade$1.2KM9 Bayonet | Forest DDPATM9 BayonetForest DDPAT$281.29M9 Bayonet | NightM9 BayonetNight$353.43M9 Bayonet | Safari MeshM9 BayonetSafari Mesh$279.50M9 Bayonet | ScorchedM9 BayonetScorched$286.11M9 Bayonet | SlaughterM9 BayonetSlaughter$663.61M9 Bayonet | StainedM9 BayonetStained$399.62M9 Bayonet | Urban MaskedM9 BayonetUrban Masked$291.81Bayonet | VanillaBayonetVanilla$225.97Flip Knife | VanillaFlip KnifeVanilla$174.87Gut Knife | VanillaGut KnifeVanilla$57.66Karambit | VanillaKarambitVanilla$1.0KM9 Bayonet | VanillaM9 BayonetVanilla$691.04
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case costs $4.70 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $7.19 per open. At live market prices it returns $4.31 on average, which is 60c back per dollar — an expected loss of $2.88 every time you open one.

It contains 14 weapon skins and 65 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.9K at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case returns about $4.31 per open against a cost of $7.19 ($4.70 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 60c back per dollar, an expected loss of $2.88 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.9K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?

The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case contains 14 weapon skins plus 65 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices