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Fracture Case Simulator

Open the Fracture Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Fracture Case
Fracture Case

Press Space or click Open Case

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What the Fracture Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$2.98
Average return$6.86
Expected gain+$3.88
Return rate230.3%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$3.04$2.43
Restricted15.98%$3.08$0.49
Classified3.20%$89.51$2.86
Covert0.64%$114.45$0.73
Knife / Gloves0.26%$132.62$0.34

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $298.00 and returns about $686.42 on average — an expected loss of $388.42.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $795.66at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Fracture Case Contents69 items

AK-47 | Legion of AnubisAK-47 | Legion of Anubis$34.28Desert Eagle | PrintstreamDesert Eagle | Printstream$378.29Galil AR | ConnexionGalil AR | Connexion$0.40Glock-18 | VogueGlock-18 | Vogue$3.73M4A4 | Tooth FairyM4A4 | Tooth Fairy$3.72MAC-10 | AllureMAC-10 | Allure$0.47MAG-7 | Monster CallMAG-7 | Monster Call$0.44MP5-SD | KitbashMP5-SD | Kitbash$0.38Negev | UltralightNegev | Ultralight$0.11P2000 | GnarledP2000 | Gnarled$0.12P250 | CassetteP250 | Cassette$0.10P90 | FreightP90 | Freight$0.12PP-Bizon | RunicPP-Bizon | Runic$0.11SG 553 | Ol' RustySG 553 | Ol' Rusty$0.14SSG 08 | Mainframe 001SSG 08 | Mainframe 001$0.12Tec-9 | BrotherTec-9 | Brother$0.42XM1014 | EntombedXM1014 | Entombed$3.62
Special Items (0.26%)
Nomad Knife | Blue SteelNomad Knife | Blue Steel$138.15Nomad Knife | Boreal ForestNomad Knife | Boreal Forest$79.16Nomad Knife | Case HardenedNomad Knife | Case Hardened$160.78Nomad Knife | Crimson WebNomad Knife | Crimson Web$163.28Nomad Knife | FadeNomad Knife | Fade$344.54Nomad Knife | Forest DDPATNomad Knife | Forest DDPAT$75.36Nomad Knife | Night StripeNomad Knife | Night Stripe$92.72Nomad Knife | Safari MeshNomad Knife | Safari Mesh$78.20Nomad Knife | ScorchedNomad Knife | Scorched$85.78Nomad Knife | SlaughterNomad Knife | Slaughter$225.35Nomad Knife | StainedNomad Knife | Stained$126.79Nomad Knife | Urban MaskedNomad Knife | Urban Masked$96.41Nomad Knife | VanillaNomad Knife | Vanilla$133.99Paracord Knife | Blue SteelParacord Knife | Blue Steel$72.88Paracord Knife | Boreal ForestParacord Knife | Boreal Forest$44.21Paracord Knife | Case HardenedParacord Knife | Case Hardened$100.94Paracord Knife | Crimson WebParacord Knife | Crimson Web$86.29Paracord Knife | FadeParacord Knife | Fade$209.62Paracord Knife | Forest DDPATParacord Knife | Forest DDPAT$43.10Paracord Knife | Night StripeParacord Knife | Night Stripe$49.46Paracord Knife | Safari MeshParacord Knife | Safari Mesh$41.77Paracord Knife | ScorchedParacord Knife | Scorched$45.34Paracord Knife | SlaughterParacord Knife | Slaughter$131.92Paracord Knife | StainedParacord Knife | Stained$54.77Paracord Knife | Urban MaskedParacord Knife | Urban Masked$51.54Paracord Knife | VanillaParacord Knife | Vanilla$50.87Skeleton Knife | Blue SteelSkeleton Knife | Blue Steel$224.49Skeleton Knife | Boreal ForestSkeleton Knife | Boreal Forest$121.29Skeleton Knife | Case HardenedSkeleton Knife | Case Hardened$248.66Skeleton Knife | Crimson WebSkeleton Knife | Crimson Web$289.88Skeleton Knife | FadeSkeleton Knife | Fade$605.86Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPATSkeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT$120.55Skeleton Knife | Night StripeSkeleton Knife | Night Stripe$146.08Skeleton Knife | Safari MeshSkeleton Knife | Safari Mesh$120.79Skeleton Knife | ScorchedSkeleton Knife | Scorched$133.05Skeleton Knife | SlaughterSkeleton Knife | Slaughter$386.70Skeleton Knife | StainedSkeleton Knife | Stained$182.54Skeleton Knife | Urban MaskedSkeleton Knife | Urban Masked$135.47Skeleton Knife | VanillaSkeleton Knife | Vanilla$246.71Survival Knife | Blue SteelSurvival Knife | Blue Steel$66.51Survival Knife | Boreal ForestSurvival Knife | Boreal Forest$43.32Survival Knife | Case HardenedSurvival Knife | Case Hardened$85.34Survival Knife | Crimson WebSurvival Knife | Crimson Web$98.51Survival Knife | FadeSurvival Knife | Fade$192.14Survival Knife | Forest DDPATSurvival Knife | Forest DDPAT$42.41Survival Knife | Night StripeSurvival Knife | Night Stripe$47.51Survival Knife | Safari MeshSurvival Knife | Safari Mesh$42.03Survival Knife | ScorchedSurvival Knife | Scorched$45.62Survival Knife | SlaughterSurvival Knife | Slaughter$121.06Survival Knife | StainedSurvival Knife | Stained$56.09Survival Knife | Urban MaskedSurvival Knife | Urban Masked$48.97Survival Knife | VanillaSurvival Knife | Vanilla$52.54
Fracture Caseprices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Fracture Case

The Fracture Case costs $0.49 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $2.98 per open. At live market prices it returns $6.86 on average, which is 230c back per dollar — an expected gain of $3.88 every time you open one.

It contains 17 weapon skins and 52 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $795.66at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Fracture Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Fracture Case returns about $6.86 per open against a cost of $2.98 ($0.49 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 230c back per dollar, an expected gain of $3.88 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Fracture Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Fracture Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $795.66 at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Fracture Case?

The Fracture Case contains 17 weapon skins plus 52 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Fracture Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Fracture Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices