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Fracture Case Simulator

Open the Fracture Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Fracture Case
Fracture Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$0.35 — Fracture Case
Opening it for real costs $2.89 with a key.
1x

What the Fracture Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$2.89
Average return$0.94
Expected loss-$1.95
Return rate32.6%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$0.15$0.12
Restricted15.98%$0.58$0.09
Classified3.20%$4.78$0.15
Covert0.64%$39.25$0.25
Knife / Gloves0.26%$123.93$0.32

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $289.00 and returns about $94.12 on average — an expected loss of $194.88.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $771.63 at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Fracture Case Contents69 items

Covert0.64%2 items
AK-47 | Legion of AnubisAK-47Legion of Anubis$32.38Desert Eagle | PrintstreamDesert EaglePrintstream$34.60
Restricted15.98%5 items
Galil AR | ConnexionGalil ARConnexion$0.42
Classified3.20%3 items
Glock-18 | VogueGlock-18Vogue$3.53M4A4 | Tooth FairyM4A4Tooth Fairy$3.50
Restricted15.98%5 items
MAC-10 | AllureMAC-10Allure$0.38MAG-7 | Monster CallMAG-7Monster Call$0.40MP5-SD | KitbashMP5-SDKitbash$0.36
Mil-Spec79.92%7 items
Negev | UltralightNegevUltralight$0.13P2000 | GnarledP2000Gnarled$0.15P250 | CassetteP250Cassette$0.13P90 | FreightP90Freight$0.15PP-Bizon | RunicPP-BizonRunic$0.13SG 553 | Ol' RustySG 553Ol' Rusty$0.12SSG 08 | Mainframe 001SSG 08Mainframe 001$0.13
Restricted15.98%5 items
Tec-9 | BrotherTec-9Brother$0.38
Classified3.20%3 items
XM1014 | EntombedXM1014Entombed$3.40
Knife / Gloves0.26%52 items
Nomad Knife | Blue SteelNomad KnifeBlue Steel$135.02Nomad Knife | Boreal ForestNomad KnifeBoreal Forest$69.93Nomad Knife | Case HardenedNomad KnifeCase Hardened$148.51Nomad Knife | Crimson WebNomad KnifeCrimson Web$149.64Nomad Knife | FadeNomad KnifeFade$323.29Nomad Knife | Forest DDPATNomad KnifeForest DDPAT$69.28Nomad Knife | Night StripeNomad KnifeNight Stripe$86.72Nomad Knife | Safari MeshNomad KnifeSafari Mesh$73.46Nomad Knife | ScorchedNomad KnifeScorched$82.91Nomad Knife | SlaughterNomad KnifeSlaughter$219.49Nomad Knife | StainedNomad KnifeStained$113.50Nomad Knife | Urban MaskedNomad KnifeUrban Masked$92.10Nomad Knife | VanillaNomad KnifeVanilla$123.90Paracord Knife | Blue SteelParacord KnifeBlue Steel$70.34Paracord Knife | Boreal ForestParacord KnifeBoreal Forest$42.41Paracord Knife | Case HardenedParacord KnifeCase Hardened$96.66Paracord Knife | Crimson WebParacord KnifeCrimson Web$80.56Paracord Knife | FadeParacord KnifeFade$230.26Paracord Knife | Forest DDPATParacord KnifeForest DDPAT$42.06Paracord Knife | Night StripeParacord KnifeNight Stripe$47.56Paracord Knife | Safari MeshParacord KnifeSafari Mesh$38.44Paracord Knife | ScorchedParacord KnifeScorched$43.66Paracord Knife | SlaughterParacord KnifeSlaughter$123.61Paracord Knife | StainedParacord KnifeStained$52.01Paracord Knife | Urban MaskedParacord KnifeUrban Masked$47.14Paracord Knife | VanillaParacord KnifeVanilla$48.28Skeleton Knife | Blue SteelSkeleton KnifeBlue Steel$209.24Skeleton Knife | Boreal ForestSkeleton KnifeBoreal Forest$116.98Skeleton Knife | Case HardenedSkeleton KnifeCase Hardened$239.49Skeleton Knife | Crimson WebSkeleton KnifeCrimson Web$265.70Skeleton Knife | FadeSkeleton KnifeFade$557.04Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPATSkeleton KnifeForest DDPAT$113.48Skeleton Knife | Night StripeSkeleton KnifeNight Stripe$140.46Skeleton Knife | Safari MeshSkeleton KnifeSafari Mesh$113.79Skeleton Knife | ScorchedSkeleton KnifeScorched$128.26Skeleton Knife | SlaughterSkeleton KnifeSlaughter$408.94Skeleton Knife | StainedSkeleton KnifeStained$172.51Skeleton Knife | Urban MaskedSkeleton KnifeUrban Masked$133.23Skeleton Knife | VanillaSkeleton KnifeVanilla$212.73Survival Knife | Blue SteelSurvival KnifeBlue Steel$62.34Survival Knife | Boreal ForestSurvival KnifeBoreal Forest$41.95Survival Knife | Case HardenedSurvival KnifeCase Hardened$86.00Survival Knife | Crimson WebSurvival KnifeCrimson Web$85.24Survival Knife | FadeSurvival KnifeFade$186.22Survival Knife | Forest DDPATSurvival KnifeForest DDPAT$42.02Survival Knife | Night StripeSurvival KnifeNight Stripe$47.35Survival Knife | Safari MeshSurvival KnifeSafari Mesh$39.79Survival Knife | ScorchedSurvival KnifeScorched$43.45Survival Knife | SlaughterSurvival KnifeSlaughter$122.12Survival Knife | StainedSurvival KnifeStained$54.22Survival Knife | Urban MaskedSurvival KnifeUrban Masked$46.61Survival Knife | VanillaSurvival KnifeVanilla$46.49
Fracture Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Fracture Case

The Fracture Case costs $0.40 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $2.89 per open. At live market prices it returns $0.94 on average, which is 33c back per dollar — an expected loss of $1.95 every time you open one.

It contains 17 weapon skins and 52 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $771.63 at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Fracture Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Fracture Case returns about $0.94 per open against a cost of $2.89 ($0.40 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 33c back per dollar, an expected loss of $1.95 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Fracture Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Fracture Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $771.63 at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Fracture Case?

The Fracture Case contains 17 weapon skins plus 52 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Fracture Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Fracture Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices