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Winter Offensive Weapon Case Simulator

Open the Winter Offensive Weapon Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Winter Offensive Weapon Case
Winter Offensive Weapon Case

Press Space or click Open Case

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Buy this case$8.41 — Winter Offensive Weapon Case
Opening it for real costs $11.97 with a key.
1x

What the Winter Offensive Weapon Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$11.97
Average return$5.66
Expected loss-$6.31
Return rate47.3%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$2.15$1.72
Restricted15.98%$8.19$1.31
Classified3.20%$32.53$1.04
Covert0.64%$117.11$0.75
Knife / Gloves0.26%$325.03$0.85

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $1.2K and returns about $566.15 on average — an expected loss of $630.85.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $3.2K at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Winter Offensive Weapon Case Contents78 items

Classified3.20%3 items
AWP | RedlineAWPRedline$32.11
Restricted15.98%4 items
Dual Berettas | MarinaDual BerettasMarina$4.44FAMAS | PulseFAMASPulse$7.91
Mil-Spec79.92%4 items
Five-SeveN | KamiFive-SeveNKami$2.43Galil AR | SandstormGalil ARSandstorm$1.49M249 | MagmaM249Magma$1.49
Classified3.20%3 items
M4A1-S | GuardianM4A1-SGuardian$22.36
Covert0.64%2 items
M4A4 | AsiimovM4A4Asiimov$191.71
Restricted15.98%4 items
MP9 | Rose IronMP9Rose Iron$6.00Nova | Rising SkullNovaRising Skull$4.57
Classified3.20%3 items
P250 | MehndiP250Mehndi$15.08
Mil-Spec79.92%4 items
PP-Bizon | Cobalt HalftonePP-BizonCobalt Halftone$1.11
Covert0.64%2 items
Sawed-Off | The KrakenSawed-OffThe Kraken$79.54
Knife / Gloves0.26%65 items
Bayonet | Blue SteelBayonetBlue Steel$199.22Bayonet | Boreal ForestBayonetBoreal Forest$120.03Bayonet | Case HardenedBayonetCase Hardened$234.26Bayonet | Crimson WebBayonetCrimson Web$178.49Bayonet | FadeBayonetFade$471.78Bayonet | Forest DDPATBayonetForest DDPAT$123.80Bayonet | NightBayonetNight$130.46Bayonet | Safari MeshBayonetSafari Mesh$117.45Bayonet | ScorchedBayonetScorched$123.38Bayonet | SlaughterBayonetSlaughter$280.91Bayonet | StainedBayonetStained$141.95Bayonet | Urban MaskedBayonetUrban Masked$126.09Flip Knife | Blue SteelFlip KnifeBlue Steel$154.99Flip Knife | Boreal ForestFlip KnifeBoreal Forest$111.05Flip Knife | Case HardenedFlip KnifeCase Hardened$167.38Flip Knife | Crimson WebFlip KnifeCrimson Web$183.11Flip Knife | FadeFlip KnifeFade$381.76Flip Knife | Forest DDPATFlip KnifeForest DDPAT$112.21Flip Knife | NightFlip KnifeNight$130.82Flip Knife | Safari MeshFlip KnifeSafari Mesh$109.86Flip Knife | ScorchedFlip KnifeScorched$121.91Flip Knife | SlaughterFlip KnifeSlaughter$265.39Flip Knife | StainedFlip KnifeStained$129.79Flip Knife | Urban MaskedFlip KnifeUrban Masked$118.68Gut Knife | Blue SteelGut KnifeBlue Steel$64.91Gut Knife | Boreal ForestGut KnifeBoreal Forest$43.70Gut Knife | Case HardenedGut KnifeCase Hardened$98.79Gut Knife | Crimson WebGut KnifeCrimson Web$66.83Gut Knife | FadeGut KnifeFade$167.09Gut Knife | Forest DDPATGut KnifeForest DDPAT$43.23Gut Knife | NightGut KnifeNight$45.42Gut Knife | Safari MeshGut KnifeSafari Mesh$43.70Gut Knife | ScorchedGut KnifeScorched$44.58Gut Knife | SlaughterGut KnifeSlaughter$110.08Gut Knife | StainedGut KnifeStained$53.18Gut Knife | Urban MaskedGut KnifeUrban Masked$44.53Karambit | Blue SteelKarambitBlue Steel$724.22Karambit | Boreal ForestKarambitBoreal Forest$392.81Karambit | Case HardenedKarambitCase Hardened$729.63Karambit | Crimson WebKarambitCrimson Web$625.91Karambit | FadeKarambitFade$2.1KKarambit | Forest DDPATKarambitForest DDPAT$387.05Karambit | NightKarambitNight$495.43Karambit | Safari MeshKarambitSafari Mesh$381.95Karambit | ScorchedKarambitScorched$420.80Karambit | SlaughterKarambitSlaughter$858.16Karambit | StainedKarambitStained$524.33Karambit | Urban MaskedKarambitUrban Masked$410.65M9 Bayonet | Blue SteelM9 BayonetBlue Steel$480.58M9 Bayonet | Boreal ForestM9 BayonetBoreal Forest$281.36M9 Bayonet | Case HardenedM9 BayonetCase Hardened$484.85M9 Bayonet | Crimson WebM9 BayonetCrimson Web$428.75M9 Bayonet | FadeM9 BayonetFade$1.2KM9 Bayonet | Forest DDPATM9 BayonetForest DDPAT$276.63M9 Bayonet | NightM9 BayonetNight$322.51M9 Bayonet | Safari MeshM9 BayonetSafari Mesh$271.96M9 Bayonet | ScorchedM9 BayonetScorched$279.29M9 Bayonet | SlaughterM9 BayonetSlaughter$656.89M9 Bayonet | StainedM9 BayonetStained$384.50M9 Bayonet | Urban MaskedM9 BayonetUrban Masked$288.00Bayonet | VanillaBayonetVanilla$221.62Flip Knife | VanillaFlip KnifeVanilla$165.79Gut Knife | VanillaGut KnifeVanilla$59.80Karambit | VanillaKarambitVanilla$995.53M9 Bayonet | VanillaM9 BayonetVanilla$697.34
Winter Offensive Weapon Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Winter Offensive Weapon Case

The Winter Offensive Weapon Case costs $9.48 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $11.97 per open. At live market prices it returns $5.66 on average, which is 47c back per dollar — an expected loss of $6.31 every time you open one.

It contains 13 weapon skins and 65 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $3.2K at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Winter Offensive Weapon Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Winter Offensive Weapon Case returns about $5.66 per open against a cost of $11.97 ($9.48 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 47c back per dollar, an expected loss of $6.31 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Winter Offensive Weapon Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Winter Offensive Weapon Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $3.2K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Winter Offensive Weapon Case?

The Winter Offensive Weapon Case contains 13 weapon skins plus 65 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Winter Offensive Weapon Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Winter Offensive Weapon Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices