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Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Simulator

Open the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case free at real Valve drop rates, priced from live market data.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

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Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$2.88 — Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
Opening it for real costs $5.91 with a key.
1x

What the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$5.91
Average return$2.97
Expected loss-$2.94
Return rate50.3%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$0.54$0.43
Restricted15.98%$3.21$0.51
Classified3.20%$19.27$0.62
Covert0.64%$88.35$0.57
Knife / Gloves0.26%$324.36$0.84

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $591.00 and returns about $297.18 on average — an expected loss of $293.82.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $1.6K at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Contents78 items

Classified3.20%3 items
AK-47 | RedlineAK-47Redline$26.61
Covert0.64%2 items
AUG | ChameleonAUGChameleon$76.36AWP | AsiimovAWPAsiimov$103.61
Restricted15.98%4 items
FAMAS | SergeantFAMASSergeant$2.52MAC-10 | HeatMAC-10Heat$2.48
Mil-Spec79.92%4 items
MAG-7 | Heaven GuardMAG-7Heaven Guard$0.38Negev | TerrainNegevTerrain$0.44
Classified3.20%3 items
Nova | AntiqueNovaAntique$10.86P90 | TrigonP90Trigon$8.82
Restricted15.98%4 items
SG 553 | PulseSG 553Pulse$2.46
Mil-Spec79.92%4 items
Tec-9 | SandstormTec-9Sandstorm$0.53UMP-45 | CorporalUMP-45Corporal$0.37
Restricted15.98%4 items
USP-S | GuardianUSP-SGuardian$2.59
Knife / Gloves0.26%65 items
Bayonet | Blue SteelBayonetBlue Steel$196.50Bayonet | Boreal ForestBayonetBoreal Forest$122.04Bayonet | Case HardenedBayonetCase Hardened$236.22Bayonet | Crimson WebBayonetCrimson Web$178.78Bayonet | FadeBayonetFade$470.94Bayonet | Forest DDPATBayonetForest DDPAT$123.32Bayonet | NightBayonetNight$131.16Bayonet | Safari MeshBayonetSafari Mesh$118.66Bayonet | ScorchedBayonetScorched$122.08Bayonet | SlaughterBayonetSlaughter$278.28Bayonet | StainedBayonetStained$143.35Bayonet | Urban MaskedBayonetUrban Masked$126.17Flip Knife | Blue SteelFlip KnifeBlue Steel$156.61Flip Knife | Boreal ForestFlip KnifeBoreal Forest$110.68Flip Knife | Case HardenedFlip KnifeCase Hardened$160.29Flip Knife | Crimson WebFlip KnifeCrimson Web$183.04Flip Knife | FadeFlip KnifeFade$393.23Flip Knife | Forest DDPATFlip KnifeForest DDPAT$111.27Flip Knife | NightFlip KnifeNight$131.41Flip Knife | Safari MeshFlip KnifeSafari Mesh$111.17Flip Knife | ScorchedFlip KnifeScorched$122.37Flip Knife | SlaughterFlip KnifeSlaughter$260.63Flip Knife | StainedFlip KnifeStained$129.78Flip Knife | Urban MaskedFlip KnifeUrban Masked$118.98Gut Knife | Blue SteelGut KnifeBlue Steel$64.21Gut Knife | Boreal ForestGut KnifeBoreal Forest$43.33Gut Knife | Case HardenedGut KnifeCase Hardened$98.93Gut Knife | Crimson WebGut KnifeCrimson Web$66.45Gut Knife | FadeGut KnifeFade$158.84Gut Knife | Forest DDPATGut KnifeForest DDPAT$42.78Gut Knife | NightGut KnifeNight$45.95Gut Knife | Safari MeshGut KnifeSafari Mesh$43.07Gut Knife | ScorchedGut KnifeScorched$44.13Gut Knife | SlaughterGut KnifeSlaughter$110.62Gut Knife | StainedGut KnifeStained$52.52Gut Knife | Urban MaskedGut KnifeUrban Masked$44.73Karambit | Blue SteelKarambitBlue Steel$727.88Karambit | Boreal ForestKarambitBoreal Forest$395.56Karambit | Case HardenedKarambitCase Hardened$735.13Karambit | Crimson WebKarambitCrimson Web$633.23Karambit | FadeKarambitFade$2.1KKarambit | Forest DDPATKarambitForest DDPAT$389.06Karambit | NightKarambitNight$498.18Karambit | Safari MeshKarambitSafari Mesh$383.78Karambit | ScorchedKarambitScorched$420.23Karambit | SlaughterKarambitSlaughter$862.79Karambit | StainedKarambitStained$526.39Karambit | Urban MaskedKarambitUrban Masked$407.36M9 Bayonet | Blue SteelM9 BayonetBlue Steel$484.17M9 Bayonet | Boreal ForestM9 BayonetBoreal Forest$277.16M9 Bayonet | Case HardenedM9 BayonetCase Hardened$480.69M9 Bayonet | Crimson WebM9 BayonetCrimson Web$430.18M9 Bayonet | FadeM9 BayonetFade$1.2KM9 Bayonet | Forest DDPATM9 BayonetForest DDPAT$276.35M9 Bayonet | NightM9 BayonetNight$324.59M9 Bayonet | Safari MeshM9 BayonetSafari Mesh$273.74M9 Bayonet | ScorchedM9 BayonetScorched$279.87M9 Bayonet | SlaughterM9 BayonetSlaughter$650.43M9 Bayonet | StainedM9 BayonetStained$384.92M9 Bayonet | Urban MaskedM9 BayonetUrban Masked$289.38Bayonet | VanillaBayonetVanilla$219.54Flip Knife | VanillaFlip KnifeVanilla$166.89Gut Knife | VanillaGut KnifeVanilla$59.00Karambit | VanillaKarambitVanilla$982.15M9 Bayonet | VanillaM9 BayonetVanilla$673.31
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

Opening the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

The Operation Phoenix Weapon Case costs $3.42 for the container plus a $2.49 key — $5.91 per open. At live market prices it returns $2.97 on average, which is 50c back per dollar — an expected loss of $2.94 every time you open one.

It contains 13 weapon skins and 65 special items — knives or gloves — in the 0.26% gold slot. Reaching an even-odds chance at that gold slot takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.6K at this case's current price. Every skin in the pool is listed above with its live price, and you can open the case as many times as you like here without spending anything.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case worth opening?

At current market prices the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case returns about $2.97 per open against a cost of $5.91 ($3.42 for the case plus a $2.49 key). That is 50c back per dollar, an expected loss of $2.94 every time you open one.

What are the odds in the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

How much does it cost to unbox a knife from the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

The gold slot is 0.26% per open. A 50% chance of hitting one takes about 267 opens, roughly $1.6K at this case’s current price — and that is still a coin flip, not a guarantee.

What is in the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case?

The Operation Phoenix Weapon Case contains 13 weapon skins plus 65 rare special items (knives or gloves) in the gold slot. Every item is listed below with its live market price.

Can I open the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case for free?

Yes. This simulator opens the Operation Phoenix Weapon Case with real Valve drop rates and live prices, as many times as you like, with no money and no signup. It is a simulator — items are not added to your Steam inventory.

Open another case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices