SkinsMonkeySkinRave

Case Opening Simulator

Real drop rates. Live prices. No money required.

Free Real Odds No Gambling
Opened0
Spent$0.00
Won$0.00
Profit+$0.00
ROI+0.0%
Luck—Too early to call
Fever Case
Fever Case

Press Space or click Open Case

Tap Open Case below

Buy this case$0.52 — Fever Case
Opening it for real costs $3.12 with a key.
1x

What the Fever Case is actually worthLive market prices, all wears weighted by how often they drop

Cost per open$3.12
Average return$1.24
Expected loss-$1.88
Return rate39.7%
Expected value contribution by rarity tier
TierChanceAverage valueAdds to return
Mil-Spec79.92%$0.17$0.14
Restricted15.98%$0.72$0.12
Classified3.20%$5.74$0.18
Covert0.64%$49.98$0.32
Knife / Gloves0.26%$186.22$0.48

Every case returns less than it costs — that gap is Valve's margin. Buying the skin you want on the open market is cheaper than unboxing it, every time. See our case opening ROI guide for the full breakdown.

Drop Rates

Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
Knife/Gloves0.26%

Your odds over multiple opens

A 0.26% knife chance is hard to picture. This is the same number stated the way it is actually experienced — the chance of at least one, over a run of opens.

100 opens costs $312.00 and returns about $123.91 on average — an expected loss of $188.09.

Chance of at least one drop of each tier within 100 opens
TierPer openAt least one in 100Opens for a coin-flip
Mil-Spec79.92%100.00%1
Restricted15.98%100.00%4
Classified3.20%96.13%22
Covert0.64%47.38%108
Knife / Gloves0.26%22.92%267

A coin-flip shot at a knife takes 267 opens — about $833.04 at this case's price. Even then it is a coin flip, not a guarantee: the odds never carry over between opens. More in our CS2 case odds guide.

Fever Case Contents45 items

Mil-Spec79.92%7 items
M4A4 | ChoppaM4A4Choppa$0.14MAG-7 | ResupplyMAG-7Resupply$0.14MP9 | NexusMP9Nexus$0.11P2000 | Sure GripP2000Sure Grip$0.08SSG 08 | MemorialSSG 08Memorial$0.15USP-S | PC-GRNUSP-SPC-GRN$0.14XM1014 | MockingbirdXM1014Mockingbird$0.09
Covert0.64%2 items
AWP | PrintstreamAWPPrintstream$44.17FAMAS | Bad TripFAMASBad Trip$44.45
Classified3.20%3 items
AK-47 | Searing RageAK-47Searing Rage$4.81Glock-18 | ShinobuGlock-18Shinobu$4.74UMP-45 | K.O. FactoryUMP-45K.O. Factory$4.63
Restricted15.98%5 items
Desert Eagle | Serpent StrikeDesert EagleSerpent Strike$0.47Galil AR | ControlGalil ARControl$0.45Nova | Rising SunNovaRising Sun$0.48P90 | Wave BreakerP90Wave Breaker$0.47Zeus x27 | TosaiZeus x27Tosai$0.43
Knife / Gloves0.26%28 items
Nomad Knife | VanillaNomad KnifeVanilla$129.22Paracord Knife | VanillaParacord KnifeVanilla$48.86Skeleton Knife | VanillaSkeleton KnifeVanilla$227.77Survival Knife | VanillaSurvival KnifeVanilla$47.18Nomad Knife | Damascus SteelNomad KnifeDamascus Steel$120.27Nomad Knife | DopplerNomad KnifeDoppler$462.22Nomad Knife | Marble FadeNomad KnifeMarble Fade$288.44Nomad Knife | Rust CoatNomad KnifeRust Coat$111.64Nomad Knife | Tiger ToothNomad KnifeTiger Tooth$228.15Nomad Knife | UltravioletNomad KnifeUltraviolet$109.48Paracord Knife | Damascus SteelParacord KnifeDamascus Steel$51.86Paracord Knife | DopplerParacord KnifeDoppler$768.40Paracord Knife | Marble FadeParacord KnifeMarble Fade$167.45Paracord Knife | Rust CoatParacord KnifeRust Coat$49.11Paracord Knife | Tiger ToothParacord KnifeTiger Tooth$143.04Paracord Knife | UltravioletParacord KnifeUltraviolet$58.26Skeleton Knife | Damascus SteelSkeleton KnifeDamascus Steel$185.37Skeleton Knife | DopplerSkeleton KnifeDoppler$823.07Skeleton Knife | Marble FadeSkeleton KnifeMarble Fade$439.93Skeleton Knife | Rust CoatSkeleton KnifeRust Coat$156.07Skeleton Knife | Tiger ToothSkeleton KnifeTiger Tooth$368.34Skeleton Knife | UltravioletSkeleton KnifeUltraviolet$181.46Survival Knife | Damascus SteelSurvival KnifeDamascus Steel$55.27Survival Knife | DopplerSurvival KnifeDoppler$310.05Survival Knife | Marble FadeSurvival KnifeMarble Fade$214.18Survival Knife | Rust CoatSurvival KnifeRust Coat$50.22Survival Knife | Tiger ToothSurvival KnifeTiger Tooth$134.65Survival Knife | UltravioletSurvival KnifeUltraviolet$54.44
Fever Case prices & history Trade-up calculator How CS2 case odds work

CS2 Case Opening Simulator

Test your luck with our free CS2 case opening simulator before spending real money. Every case in Counter-Strike 2 is available with real Valve-confirmed drop rates and live market prices from SteamAnalyst. Track your total spending, winnings and ROI to see exactly how profitable — or unprofitable — case openings really are.

How CS2 Case Opening Works

Each CS2 case contains a pool of weapon skins across five rarity tiers. When you open a case with a key ($2.49), the game picks a rarity tier at fixed probabilities, then a random skin from that tier, then a float value inside that skin's own wear range. Any weapon skin has a 10% chance of being StatTrak.

CS2 Case Drop Rates

Mil-Spec (Blue)79.92%
Restricted (Purple)15.98%
Classified (Pink)3.20%
Covert (Red)0.64%
Knife / Gloves (Gold)0.26%

These odds are the same for every weapon case. They do not improve with streaks and they do not carry over — each open is independent, which is why a run of bad luck never makes the next open more likely to pay.

Which CS2 case gives the most back?

No case returns more than it costs — but they are not equally bad. These are the five cases returning the most per dollar at today's prices.

CS2 cases ranked by expected return per dollar
CaseCost per openAverage returnReturn rate
Gamma Case$5.47$4.2978%
Chroma 2 Case$6.25$4.8177%
Chroma 3 Case$5.88$4.4676%
Gamma 2 Case$5.51$4.1575%
Chroma Case$7.23$5.2472%

The cheapest case to open right now is the Kilowatt Case at $2.62 per open. Cheaper does not mean better value — check the return rate, not the ticket price.

Already own skins?

Unboxing is the most expensive way to get a skin — the panel above is that arithmetic. Selling what you already have is the other direction, and these marketplaces buy skins outright, grouped by what the money actually is, because the two kinds are not comparable.

Pays cashMoney out, to a payment method you choose.
Pays site creditBalance on that site, to spend there. It usually reads higher than a cash offer for the same skin, which is why the two are not ranked against each other.

What any of them pays depends on the item. Open a skin's page — every item in the grid above links to its own — for that skin's live payouts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the CS2 case opening odds?

Valve confirmed drop rates: Mil-Spec (Blue) 79.92%, Restricted (Purple) 15.98%, Classified (Pink) 3.20%, Covert (Red) 0.64%, Special/Knife/Gloves (Gold) 0.26%. StatTrak has a 10% chance on any weapon skin — gloves have no StatTrak version.

Is this case opening simulator free?

Yes, completely free with no signup and no real money involved. It uses real Valve drop rates and live market prices from SteamAnalyst so you can see what opening CS2 cases is actually worth before spending anything.

How accurate are the CS2 case drop rates?

We use the rates Valve disclosed in 2017, confirmed since by community analysis of millions of openings. Float values are rolled inside each skin’s real float cap, so a skin that starts at 0.10 never comes out Factory New, and prices are taken per-wear from live market data.

What are the odds of getting a knife from a CS2 case?

The gold knife/gloves slot is 0.26%, about 1 in 385 opens. Reaching even a 50% chance of one takes roughly 267 opens — and the odds never carry over, so every open starts from 0.26% again.

Are CS2 cases profitable to open?

No. Every case returns less on average than it costs to open — that gap is Valve’s margin. This simulator shows the expected return of each case from live prices, and tracks your own ROI as you open so you can watch it converge on that number.

How are the skin prices in the simulator calculated?

Prices are live market prices from SteamAnalyst, which aggregates 30+ CS2 marketplaces. Pricing is per-wear, so a Factory New drop is valued differently from a Battle-Scarred one, and StatTrak is priced separately where a StatTrak market exists.

What is the best CS2 case to open?

No case has a positive expected value, but they are not equally bad. Sort the case list by "Best return" to rank every case by how much of each dollar it gives back at current prices.

What is a StatTrak weapon in CS2?

StatTrak weapons count your kills in-game and are typically worth several times their normal version. Any weapon skin from a case has a 10% chance of being StatTrak. Gloves are the exception — there is no StatTrak glove in CS2.

Open a specific CS2 case

Every case has its own simulator page with that case's pool, odds and expected value at current prices.

Related: CS2 case odds explained · Case opening ROI · Trade-up calculator · All case prices