Worst CS2 Skins to Buy Right Now — Falling and Hard to Sell
Prices sliding, and thin enough trading that leaving means cutting the price. A falling market you can walk out of is a bad entry; a falling market you cannot is something else, and this list separates the two.
Showing 50 of 122 ranked items, re-sorted within the 1,200-item candidate pool.
| # | Item | Verdict | 7d | 30d | Liquidity | Sell in | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ESL One Katowice 2015 Overpass Package | Weak entry20medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +7.2% | ▼ -3.2% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $659 |
| 2 |  ESL One Katowice 2015 Mirage Package | Weak entry20medium confidence162% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +0.5% | ▲ +19.9% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $160 |
| 3 |  London 2018 Mirage Package | Weak entry20rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +8.2% | ▲ +8.6% | Rarely Traded | ~1 month | $25 |
| 4 |  Autograph Capsule | Luminosity Gaming | Cluj-Napoca 2015 | Weak entry20medium confidence14570% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +0.1% | ▲ +20.9% | Rarely Traded | ~7 months | $41 |
| 5 |  Autograph Capsule | Team Immunity | Cologne 2015 | Weak entry21rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +10.3% | ▼ -7.5% | Rarely Traded | ~10 months | $31 |
| 6 |  Cologne 2016 Nuke Package | Weak entry21medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +0.8% | ▲ +20.6% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $127 |
| 7 |  Autograph Capsule | Fnatic | MLG Columbus 2016 | Weak entry21228% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +5.1% | ▲ +14.5% | Rarely Traded | ~1 week | $11 |
| 8 |  Autograph Capsule | Flipsid3 Tactics | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry21medium confidence122% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +7.9% | ▲ +11.3% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $31 |
| 9 |  Masterminds Music Kit BoxST | Weak entry21rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +16.1% | ▼ -0.6% | Rarely Traded | ~1 month | $7.21 |
| 10 |  MLG Columbus 2016 Overpass Package | Weak entry21medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +7.6% | ▲ +12.7% | Rarely Traded | ~4 months | $185 |
| 11 |  MLG Columbus 2016 Dust II Package | Weak entry21medium confidence98% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +11.9% | ▲ +6.8% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $126 |
| 12 |  Collectible Pins Capsule Series 3 | Weak entry22falling with no reliable way out | ▲ +1.2% | ▼ -7.8% | Slow Mover | ~6 days | $6.10 |
| 13 |  Katowice 2019 Legends Autograph Capsule | Weak entry22falling with no reliable way out | ▼ -0.6% | ▼ -5.2% | Slow Mover | ~2 months | $5.15 |
| 14 |  DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Package | Weak entry22medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -0.9% | ▲ +9.8% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $126 |
| 15 |  Stockholm 2021 Contenders Patch Pack | Weak entry22rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +3.3% | ▲ +3.6% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $5.40 |
| 16 |  ESL One Cologne 2015 Mirage Package | Weak entry22rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +1.7% | ▲ +22.2% | Rarely Traded | ~3 months | $85 |
| 17 |  Autograph Capsule | Gambit Gaming | Atlanta 2017 | Weak entry22rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +9.4% | ▲ +10.7% | Rarely Traded | ~4 months | $11 |
| 18 |  Autograph Capsule | Fnatic | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry22rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +5.2% | ▲ +18.9% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $15 |
| 19 |  Autograph Capsule | G2 Esports | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry22rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +5.4% | ▲ +18.5% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $51 |
| 20 |  DreamHack 2014 Overpass Package | Weak entry22medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -1.3% | ▲ +29.4% | Rarely Traded | ~4 months | $970 |
| 21 |  Katowice 2019 Overpass Package | Weak entry23rarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -4.5% | ▲ +16.0% | Rarely Traded | ~6 months | $24 |
| 22 |  Katowice 2019 Cache Package | Weak entry23rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +18.9% | ▲ +1.5% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $72 |
| 23 |  Autograph Capsule | Flipsid3 Tactics | Atlanta 2017 | Weak entry23rarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -0.6% | ▲ +31.1% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $19 |
| 24 |  ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Package | Weak entry24medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +5.0% | ▲ +2.5% | Rarely Traded | ~4 months | $5,722 |
| 25 |  London 2018 Cache Package | Weak entry24rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +4.3% | ▲ +3.9% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $46 |
| 26 |  Cologne 2016 Dust II Package | Weak entry24medium confidence103% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +13.2% | ▲ +13.5% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $114 |
| 27 |  Autograph Capsule | Virtus.Pro | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry24rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +3.6% | ▲ +28.2% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $21 |
| 28 |  Berlin 2019 Mirage Package | Weak entry24rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +15.3% | ▲ +11.0% | Rarely Traded | Unrated | $28 |
| 29 |  Autograph Capsule | Ninjas in Pyjamas | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry25medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +9.0% | ▼ -3.0% | Rarely Traded | ~5 months | $26 |
| 30 |  ESL One Cologne 2015 Dust II Package | Weak entry25medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -3.7% | ▲ +16.0% | Rarely Traded | a year+ | $108 |
| 31 |  Autograph Capsule | Flipsid3 Tactics | MLG Columbus 2016 | Weak entry25rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +0.6% | ▲ +10.0% | Rarely Traded | ~1 month | $14 |
| 32 |  London 2018 Overpass Package | Weak entry25rarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -2.2% | ▲ +14.3% | Rarely Traded | ~6 months | $42 |
| 33 |  Autograph Capsule | Group C | Cologne 2015 | Weak entry251010% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +1.7% | ▲ +32.8% | Rarely Traded | ~12 months | $38 |
| 34 |  Krakow 2017 Cache Package | Weak entry25rarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -6.3% | ▲ +45.1% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $109 |
| 35 |  Cologne 2016 Overpass Package | Weak entry26medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +2.8% | ▲ +7.4% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $146 |
| 36 |  Autograph Capsule | Vexed Gaming | Cluj-Napoca 2015 | Weak entry26rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +25.3% | — | Rarely Traded | ~3 months | $18 |
| 37 |  Boston 2018 Minor Challengers Autograph Capsule | Weak entry26medium confidence108% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +15.8% | ▲ +14.9% | Rarely Traded | ~1 month | $413 |
| 38 |  ESL One Katowice 2015 Dust II Package | Weak entry26medium confidence59% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +7.4% | ▲ +28.7% | Rarely Traded | No flow | $104 |
| 39 |  Masterminds 2 Music Kit BoxST | Weak entry27falling with no reliable way out | ▲ +5.1% | ▼ -9.8% | Slow Mover | ~3 days | $7.39 |
| 40 |  London 2018 Returning Challengers (Holo-Foil) | Weak entry27medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +4.7% | ▲ +5.0% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $20 |
| 41 |  London 2018 Dust II Package | Weak entry27medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +4.1% | ▲ +6.2% | Rarely Traded | ~5 months | $21 |
| 42 |  Autograph Capsule | Team Liquid | MLG Columbus 2016 | Weak entry2751% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +14.1% | ▲ +21.1% | Rarely Traded | ~6 months | $17 |
| 43 |  Boston 2018 Mirage Package | Weak entry27rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +18.7% | ▲ +15.1% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $33 |
| 44 |  Autograph Capsule | Luminosity Gaming | Cologne 2015 | Weak entry28rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +5.4% | ▲ +4.7% | Rarely Traded | ~4 months | $16 |
| 45 |  Autograph Capsule | Natus Vincere | Cologne 2015 | Weak entry2978% of the week's move was yesterday · rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +18.0% | ▲ +19.9% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $8.79 |
| 46 |  Autograph Capsule | Astralis | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry30medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +4.3% | ▼ -6.0% | Rarely Traded | ~1 month | $28 |
| 47 |  Autograph Capsule | Team EnVyUs | Cologne 2015 | Weak entry30rarely trades — hard to exit | ▼ -0.7% | ▲ +1.5% | Rarely Traded | ~3 months | $7.38 |
| 48 |  Autograph Capsule | OpTic Gaming | Cologne 2016 | Weak entry30rarely trades — hard to exit | ▲ +3.4% | ▼ -4.6% | Rarely Traded | ~5 months | $36 |
| 49 |  Autograph Capsule | Astralis | Atlanta 2017 | Weak entry30medium confidencerarely trades — hard to exit | 0% | ▲ +13.8% | Rarely Traded | ~3 months | $11 |
| 50 |  Autograph Capsule | Virtus.Pro | Cluj-Napoca 2015 | Weak entry30rarely trades — hard to exit | 0% | ▲ +13.9% | Rarely Traded | ~2 months | $8.33 |
How these ratings are reached
Momentum sets the rating
The 7-day change in the SteamAnalyst reference price at 60%, plus the 30-day change at 40%. Signed, so a week that contradicts its month damps itself instead of both being reported as good news. Above 8% blended is the top band; below -8% is the bottom one.
Liquidity can only pull it down
Measured from units actually traded over 30 days, not from price or popularity. Thin trading caps how well an item can rate however hard it is climbing, because you cannot realise a gain you cannot exit. Nothing about being easy to sell ever raises a rating — that would make this a volume ranking wearing a buy label.
Falling and illiquid is worse than either
On the way down the rule inverts. A falling price in a deep market is a bad entry you can still walk away from; a falling price with nobody trading is a trap, and it rates below the thing you can leave. The two sides are not mirror images and are not calculated as if they were.
What we leave out
Items with fewer than 20 recorded prices in the window, feeds that have not updated in 7 days, items without the 10 trading days needed to rate liquidity, and anything under $5 where a one-cent tick is a percentage point. Each is us declining to guess, not a judgement on the item.
Band boundaries are currently reasoned rather than fitted to the live distribution — they are an informed judgement about how this market moves, not a measurement of it. See the liquidity board for the trade-flow half on its own, or price trends for the price half.
Measurements, not advice. Nothing here predicts the future, and no indicator anticipates a game update, a tournament or a Steam sale. Never spend more than you can afford to lose.
Frequently asked questions
How do you decide which CS2 skins are best to buy?
Two readings, and neither is allowed to speak alone. The first is momentum: how the SteamAnalyst reference price has moved over the last 7 days, weighted against the last 30 so a one-week jump has to be confirmed by the month before it counts. The second is liquidity: whether the item actually trades, measured from real units changing hands over 30 days. Momentum sets the rating and liquidity can only pull it down — because a skin climbing 20% a week is worth nothing to you if there is no way to sell it again.
Why can an item rising fast still rate badly?
Because you have to be able to get back out. A rising price in a market where almost nothing trades is a number on a screen, not money — you would be buying into something with no buyers behind it. Thin trading caps how well an item can rate no matter how hard it is climbing, and an item that rarely trades at all cannot rate above "Weak entry".
What makes an item one of the worst to buy?
A falling price plus a market you cannot leave. Those two are worse together than either is alone: a falling price in a deep market is just a bad entry, since you can still sell. A falling price with nobody trading is a trap. So on the "worst to buy" list, thin trading pushes an item further down rather than merely capping it — the reverse of how it works on the buy side.
What is momentum and how is it calculated?
The 7-day price change weighted at 60%, plus the 30-day change at 40%. Signed, so the two argue with each other: a week up 10% inside a month down 10% blends to about +2% and lands in Neutral, which is the honest reading of a bounce inside a decline. An item needs roughly 8% blended momentum for the top band and 3% for the second.
Why does a big one-day jump not put an item at the top?
Because a week carried by its last day is a spike, not a trend — and it is the thing a momentum ranking gets wrong most often, sorting yesterday's jump to the top on the morning it is least likely to continue. When more than 50% of the week's move happened in the final day, the item cannot claim the top band and the row says so.
Where do the price changes come from?
The SteamAnalyst reference price — the same aggregate price shown in the price column here and on every skin page. That is deliberate: the percentage this page ranks on is the percentage the price beside it actually moved, and clicking through to the skin shows the same number. Three surfaces, one measurement.
Why is my skin missing from this list?
One of four reasons, and each is us declining to guess rather than a judgement on the item. We hold fewer than 20 recorded prices for it in the window; its price or trade data has not updated in over 7 days; we have not recorded the 10 trading days needed to rate its liquidity at all; or it is under $5, where a one-cent tick is a whole percentage point and the ranking would be measuring rounding rather than the market.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is a measurement of two things — where a price has been, and how readily the item trades — presented so you can see both and disagree with the conclusion. Neither predicts the future. Game updates, tournament demand and Steam sales all move this market in ways no indicator anticipates. Never spend more than you can afford to lose.