How to Trade Up to XM1014 | CaliCamo
XM1014 | CaliCamo drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $0.30 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.13 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -56.7% $-0.17 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear XM1014 | CaliCamo costs $0.13 outright, against $0.30 for a contract with a 16.67% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | CaliCamo specifically.
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed
Nova | Sand Dune
FAMAS | Colony
AUG | Contractor
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed
Tec-9 | Groundwater
AUG | Contractor
Tec-9 | Groundwater
Nova | Sand Dune
Tec-9 | Groundwater
Nova | Sand Dune
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | CaliCamo is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Boreal Forest | 16.67% | $0.15 |
| Nova | Candy Apple | 16.67% | $0.15 |
| XM1014 | CaliCamoyour target | 16.67% | $0.13 |
| Dual Berettas | Stained | 16.67% | $0.11 |
| UMP-45 | Gunsmoke | 16.67% | $0.11 |
| P2000 | Granite Marbleized | 16.67% | $0.11 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | CaliCamo’s range of 0.00–0.60. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0583 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1833 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4417 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6917 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5250 | 0.8750 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | CaliCamo’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | CaliCamo is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $0.13 | −$0.17 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.13 | −$0.17 |
| Field-Tested | $0.13 | −$0.17 |
| Well-Worn | $0.14 | −$0.16 |
| Factory New | $0.29 | −$0.01 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.