How to Trade Up to USP-S | Flashback
USP-S | Flashback drops from Danger Zone Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.20 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.61 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -49.2% $-0.59 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested USP-S | Flashback costs $0.56 outright, against $1.20 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Danger Zone Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at USP-S | Flashback specifically.
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
Tec-9 | Fubar
MP9 | Modest Threat
SG 553 | Danger Close
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
Tec-9 | Fubar
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze
M4A4 | Magnesium
SG 553 | Danger Close
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
SG 553 | Danger Close
Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Danger Zone Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so USP-S | Flashback is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| P250 | Nevermore | 20% | $0.97 |
| Galil AR | Signal | 20% | $0.59 |
| USP-S | Flashbackyour target | 20% | $0.56 |
| MAC-10 | Pipe Down | 20% | $0.47 |
| G3SG1 | Scavenger | 20% | $0.46 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to USP-S | Flashback’s range of 0.00–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0700 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2200 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5300 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8300 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9500 |
“Not reachable” means USP-S | Flashback’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What USP-S | Flashback is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.56 | −$0.64 |
| Well-Worn | $0.69 | −$0.51 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.72 | −$0.48 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.90 | −$0.30 |
| Factory New | $4.60 | +$3.40 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.