How to Trade Up to Nova | Clear Polymer
Nova | Clear Polymer drops from Operation Broken Fang Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $4.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.54 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -38% $-1.56 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Well-Worn Nova | Clear Polymer costs $2.15 outright, against $4.10 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Broken Fang Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Clear Polymer specifically.
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh
CZ75-Auto | Vendetta
MP5-SD | Condition Zero
MP5-SD | Condition Zero
M249 | Deep Relief
M249 | Deep Relief
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh
P250 | Contaminant
CZ75-Auto | Vendetta
Galil AR | Vandal
P90 | Cocoa Rampage
G3SG1 | Digital Mesh12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Broken Fang Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Nova | Clear Polymer is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Exoskeleton | 20% | $3.47 |
| UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth | 20% | $2.56 |
| Dual Berettas | Dezastre | 20% | $2.43 |
| Nova | Clear Polymeryour target | 20% | $2.15 |
| SSG 08 | Parallax | 20% | $2.10 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Clear Polymer’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Clear Polymer’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Clear Polymer is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $2.15 | −$1.95 |
| Battle-Scarred | $2.20 | −$1.90 |
| Field-Tested | $2.96 | −$1.14 |
| Minimal Wear | $11.09 | +$6.99 |
| Factory New | $21.63 | +$17.53 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.