How to Trade Up to Negev | Lionfish
Negev | Lionfish drops from Clutch Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.20 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -58.3% $-0.70 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested Negev | Lionfish costs $0.40 outright, against $1.20 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Clutch Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Negev | Lionfish specifically.
MP9 | Black Sand
MP9 | Black Sand
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
P2000 | Urban Hazard
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
MP9 | Black Sand
P2000 | Urban Hazard
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
P2000 | Urban Hazard
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Clutch Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Machinegun skin in the pool, so Negev | Lionfish is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Moonrise | 20% | $0.94 |
| MAG-7 | SWAG-7 | 20% | $0.40 |
| Negev | Lionfishyour target | 20% | $0.40 |
| Nova | Wild Six | 20% | $0.39 |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf | 20% | $0.35 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Negev | Lionfish’s range of 0.00–0.55. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0636 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2000 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4818 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.7545 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5000 | 0.9091 |
“Not reachable” means Negev | Lionfish’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Negev | Lionfish is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.40 | −$0.80 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.43 | −$0.77 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.67 | −$0.53 |
| Well-Worn | $0.80 | −$0.40 |
| Factory New | $1.69 | +$0.49 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.