How to Trade Up to M4A4 | Etch Lord
M4A4 | Etch Lord drops from Kilowatt Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.60 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.37 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -38.3% $-0.23 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Well-Worn M4A4 | Etch Lord costs $0.36 outright, against $0.60 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Kilowatt Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A4 | Etch Lord specifically.
SSG 08 | Dezastre
Nova | Dark Sigil
MAC-10 | Light Box
XM1014 | Irezumi
Dual Berettas | Hideout
SSG 08 | Dezastre
XM1014 | Irezumi
UMP-45 | Motorized
Tec-9 | Slag
XM1014 | Irezumi
Nova | Dark Sigil
Tec-9 | Slag12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Kilowatt Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A4 | Etch Lord is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Block-18 | 20% | $0.45 |
| M4A4 | Etch Lordyour target | 20% | $0.36 |
| Sawed-Off | Analog Input | 20% | $0.36 |
| MP7 | Just Smile | 20% | $0.35 |
| Five-SeveN | Hybrid | 20% | $0.34 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A4 | Etch Lord’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means M4A4 | Etch Lord’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A4 | Etch Lord is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $0.36 | −$0.24 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.36 | −$0.24 |
| Field-Tested | $0.43 | −$0.17 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.88 | +$0.28 |
| Factory New | $5.57 | +$4.97 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.