How to Trade Up to Glock-18 | Moonrise
Glock-18 | Moonrise drops from Clutch Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.20 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -58.3% $-0.70 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested Glock-18 | Moonrise costs $0.94 outright, against $1.20 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Clutch Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Glock-18 | Moonrise specifically.
P2000 | Urban Hazard
MP9 | Black Sand
MP9 | Black Sand
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
Five-SeveN | Flame Test
P2000 | Urban Hazard
XM1014 | Oxide Blaze
PP-Bizon | Night Riot
MP9 | Black Sand
P2000 | Urban Hazard
Five-SeveN | Flame Test12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Clutch Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so Glock-18 | Moonrise is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Glock-18 | Moonriseyour target | 20% | $0.94 |
| MAG-7 | SWAG-7 | 20% | $0.41 |
| Negev | Lionfish | 20% | $0.41 |
| Nova | Wild Six | 20% | $0.40 |
| UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf | 20% | $0.36 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Glock-18 | Moonrise’s range of 0.00–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0538 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1692 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4077 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6385 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8462 |
“Not reachable” means Glock-18 | Moonrise’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Glock-18 | Moonrise is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.94 | −$0.26 |
| Well-Worn | $1.03 | −$0.17 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.07 | −$0.13 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.48 | +$0.28 |
| Factory New | $3.25 | +$2.05 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.