How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Rat Rod
AK-47 | Rat Rod drops from Shattered Web Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $5.20 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $2.12 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -59.2% $-3.08 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Well-Worn AK-47 | Rat Rod costs $3.47 outright, against $5.20 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Shattered Web Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Rat Rod specifically.
M249 | Warbird
Nova | Plume
G3SG1 | Black Sand
G3SG1 | Black Sand
M249 | Warbird
SCAR-20 | Torn
Nova | Plume
SCAR-20 | Torn
SCAR-20 | Torn
R8 Revolver | Memento
MP5-SD | Acid Wash
MP5-SD | Acid Wash12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Shattered Web Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Rat Rod is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Rat Rodyour target | 20% | $3.47 |
| MP7 | Neon Ply | 20% | $2.16 |
| AUG | Arctic Wolf | 20% | $1.72 |
| P2000 | Obsidian | 20% | $1.71 |
| PP-Bizon | Embargo | 20% | $1.55 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Rat Rod’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Rat Rod’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Rat Rod is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn | $3.47 | −$1.73 |
| Battle-Scarred | $3.63 | −$1.57 |
| Field-Tested | $3.68 | −$1.52 |
| Minimal Wear | $5.61 | +$0.41 |
| Factory New | $69.28 | +$64.08 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.