How to Trade Up to AK-47 | Orbit Mk01
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 drops from Operation Hydra Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $33.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $18.02 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -45.6% $-15.08 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 costs $22.05 outright, against $33.10 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Hydra Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 specifically.
MAG-7 | Hard Water
FAMAS | Macabre
Tec-9 | Cut Out
FAMAS | Macabre
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers
USP-S | Blueprint
M4A1-S | Briefing
Tec-9 | Cut Out
MAC-10 | Aloha
USP-S | Blueprint
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Hydra Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01your target | 20% | $22.05 |
| SSG 08 | Death's Head | 20% | $18.75 |
| P2000 | Woodsman | 20% | $18.26 |
| P250 | Red Rock | 20% | $15.78 |
| P90 | Death Grip | 20% | $15.25 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to AK-47 | Orbit Mk01’s range of 0.00–0.55. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0636 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2000 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4818 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.7545 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5000 | 0.9091 |
“Not reachable” means AK-47 | Orbit Mk01’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $22.05 | −$11.05 |
| Battle-Scarred | $22.54 | −$10.56 |
| Well-Worn | $25.27 | −$7.83 |
| Minimal Wear | $27.16 | −$5.94 |
| Factory New | $77.16 | +$44.06 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.