How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Heaven Guard
XM1014 | Heaven Guard drops from Huntsman Weapon CaseHuntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, Huntsman Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $930.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $491.25 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -47.2% $-438.75 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | Heaven Guard costs $486.00 outright, against $930.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Huntsman Weapon CaseHuntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case or Huntsman Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Heaven Guard specifically.
CZ75-Auto | Twist
CZ75-Auto | Twist
CZ75-Auto | Twist
SSG 08 | Slashed
P2000 | Pulse
P90 | Module
P90 | Module
SSG 08 | Slashed
Galil AR | Kami
CZ75-Auto | Twist
P2000 | Pulse
Galil AR | Kami12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Huntsman Weapon CaseHuntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case / Huntsman Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Heaven Guard is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| PP-Bizon | Antique | 25% | $500.00 |
| AUG | Torque | 25% | $498.00 |
| XM1014 | Heaven Guardyour target | 25% | $486.00 |
| MAC-10 | Tatter | 25% | $481.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Heaven Guard’s range of 0.03–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0500 | 0.0426 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1702 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5000 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8191 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9468 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Heaven Guard’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Heaven Guard is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $486.00 | −$444.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $574.00 | −$356.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $707.00 | −$223.00 |
| Well-Worn | $811.00 | −$119.00 |
| Factory New | $1407.00 | +$477.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.