How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Heaven Guard
XM1014 | Heaven Guard drops from Huntsman Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $9.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $4.76 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -49.4% $-4.64 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | Heaven Guard costs $4.54 outright, against $9.40 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Huntsman Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Heaven Guard specifically.
P90 | Module
CZ75-Auto | Twist
P90 | Module
CZ75-Auto | Twist
CZ75-Auto | Twist
SSG 08 | Slashed
P2000 | Pulse
SSG 08 | Slashed
SSG 08 | Slashed
P90 | Module
Galil AR | Kami
CZ75-Auto | Twist12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Huntsman Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Heaven Guard is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Curse | 20% | $5.76 |
| AUG | Torque | 20% | $4.94 |
| XM1014 | Heaven Guardyour target | 20% | $4.54 |
| PP-Bizon | Antique | 20% | $4.39 |
| MAC-10 | Tatter | 20% | $4.15 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Heaven Guard’s range of 0.03–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0500 | 0.0426 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1702 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5000 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8191 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9468 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Heaven Guard’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Heaven Guard is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $4.54 | −$4.86 |
| Battle-Scarred | $6.38 | −$3.02 |
| Minimal Wear | $6.52 | −$2.88 |
| Well-Worn | $8.32 | −$1.08 |
| Factory New | $11.67 | +$2.27 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.