How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Moonrise
UMP-45 | Moonrise drops from Prisma Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.00 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.25 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -37.5% $-0.75 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested UMP-45 | Moonrise costs $0.61 outright, against $2.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Prisma Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Moonrise specifically.
P90 | Off World
MP7 | Mischief
P90 | Off World
FAMAS | Crypsis
MAC-10 | Whitefish
MAC-10 | Whitefish
FAMAS | Crypsis
Galil AR | Akoben
Galil AR | Akoben
MP7 | Mischief
Galil AR | Akoben
FAMAS | Crypsis12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Prisma Case draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Moonrise is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AWP | Atheris | 20% | $3.55 |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail | 20% | $0.99 |
| UMP-45 | Moonriseyour target | 20% | $0.61 |
| Tec-9 | Bamboozle | 20% | $0.57 |
| MP5-SD | Gauss | 20% | $0.55 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Moonrise’s range of 0.00–0.40. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0875 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2750 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.6625 |
| Well-Worn | 0.3900 | 0.9750 |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Moonrise’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Moonrise is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.61 | −$1.39 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.70 | −$1.30 |
| Well-Worn | $0.78 | −$1.22 |
| Factory New | $1.62 | −$0.38 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.