How to Trade Up to SG 553 | Dragon Tech
SG 553 | Dragon Tech drops from Recoil Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.70 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.36 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -48.6% $-0.34 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred SG 553 | Dragon Tech costs $0.35 outright, against $0.70 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Recoil Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at SG 553 | Dragon Tech specifically.
Galil AR | Destroyer
UMP-45 | Roadblock
Galil AR | Destroyer
Negev | Drop Me
Negev | Drop Me
FAMAS | Meow 36
FAMAS | Meow 36
UMP-45 | Roadblock
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
Glock-18 | Winterized
MAC-10 | Monkeyflage
Negev | Drop Me12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Recoil Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so SG 553 | Dragon Tech is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora | 20% | $0.37 |
| R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 | 20% | $0.36 |
| M249 | Downtown | 20% | $0.36 |
| SG 553 | Dragon Techyour target | 20% | $0.35 |
| P90 | Vent Rush | 20% | $0.35 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to SG 553 | Dragon Tech’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means SG 553 | Dragon Tech’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What SG 553 | Dragon Tech is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.35 | −$0.35 |
| Field-Tested | $0.39 | −$0.31 |
| Well-Worn | $0.45 | −$0.25 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.74 | +$0.04 |
| Factory New | $1.74 | +$1.04 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.