How to Trade Up to P250 | Red Rock
P250 | Red Rock drops from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, Operation Hydra Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $3270.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1947.20 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -40.5% $-1322.80 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred P250 | Red Rock costs $1598.00 outright, against $3270.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case or Operation Hydra Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P250 | Red Rock specifically.
USP-S | Blueprint
FAMAS | Macabre
M4A1-S | Briefing
FAMAS | Macabre
Tec-9 | Cut Out
Tec-9 | Cut Out
USP-S | Blueprint
MAC-10 | Aloha
M4A1-S | Briefing
FAMAS | Macabre
MAG-7 | Hard Water
UMP-45 | Metal Flowers12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Hydra CaseOperation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case / Operation Hydra Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Pistol skin in the pool, so P250 | Red Rock is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 | 20% | $2512.00 |
| P2000 | Woodsman | 20% | $2290.00 |
| SSG 08 | Deaths Head | 20% | $2042.00 |
| P250 | Red Rockyour target | 20% | $1598.00 |
| P90 | Death Grip | 20% | $1294.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P250 | Red Rock’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means P250 | Red Rock’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P250 | Red Rock is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1598.00 | −$1672.00 |
| Well-Worn | $1629.00 | −$1641.00 |
| Field-Tested | $2054.00 | −$1216.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $2792.00 | −$478.00 |
| Factory New | $4302.00 | +$1032.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.