How to Trade Up to Nova | Sobek's Bite
Nova | Sobek's Bite drops from Anubis Collection Package, Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package, Shanghai 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package, Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Package, Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Highlight Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $8.30 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $6.02 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -27.5% $-2.28 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Nova | Sobek's Bite costs $4.75 outright, against $8.30 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Anubis Collection Package or Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package or Shanghai 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package or Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Package or Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Highlight Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Nova | Sobek's Bite specifically.
Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot
Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot
MAG-7 | Copper Coated
MAG-7 | Copper Coated
Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot
MAG-7 | Copper Coated
AK-47 | Steel Delta
AK-47 | Steel Delta
AK-47 | Steel Delta
AWP | Black Nile
MAG-7 | Copper Coated
AWP | Black Nile8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Anubis Collection Package / Paris 2023 Anubis Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package / Shanghai 2024 Anubis Souvenir Package / Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Package / Austin 2025 Anubis Souvenir Highlight Package draws uniformly from every Restricted skin in the pool, so Nova | Sobek's Bite is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| P90 | ScaraB Rush | 33.33% | $7.48 |
| Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach | 33.33% | $5.82 |
| Nova | Sobek's Biteyour target | 33.33% | $4.75 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Nova | Sobek's Bite’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Nova | Sobek's Bite’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Nova | Sobek's Bite is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $4.75 | −$3.55 |
| Well-Worn | $5.20 | −$3.10 |
| Field-Tested | $5.93 | −$2.37 |
| Minimal Wear | $14.16 | +$5.86 |
| Factory New | $17.69 | +$9.39 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.