How to Trade Up to Negev | Loudmouth
Negev | Loudmouth drops from Falchion CaseFalchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, Falchion Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $300.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $137.20 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -54.3% $-162.80 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested Negev | Loudmouth costs $81.00 outright, against $300.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Falchion CaseFalchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case or Falchion Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Negev | Loudmouth specifically.
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
Nova | Ranger
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
UMP-45 | Riot
P90 | Elite Build
USP-S | Torque12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Falchion CaseFalchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case / Falchion Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Machinegun skin in the pool, so Negev | Loudmouth is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo | 20% | $321.00 |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart | 20% | $126.00 |
| FAMAS | Neural Net | 20% | $90.00 |
| Negev | Loudmouthyour target | 20% | $81.00 |
| P2000 | Handgun | 20% | $68.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Negev | Loudmouth’s range of 0.14–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1450 | 0.0098 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2451 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5392 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8039 |
“Not reachable” means Negev | Loudmouth’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Negev | Loudmouth is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $81.00 | −$219.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $83.00 | −$217.00 |
| Well-Worn | $89.00 | −$211.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1609.00 | +$1309.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.