How to Trade Up to Negev | Loudmouth
Negev | Loudmouth drops from Falchion Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $3.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.18 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -61.9% $-1.92 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Negev | Loudmouth costs $0.78 outright, against $3.10 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Falchion Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Negev | Loudmouth specifically.
P90 | Elite Build
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
Nova | Ranger
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
UMP-45 | Riot
P90 | Elite Build
UMP-45 | Riot
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
P90 | Elite Build12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Falchion Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Machinegun skin in the pool, so Negev | Loudmouth is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo | 20% | $2.68 |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart | 20% | $1.09 |
| Negev | Loudmouthyour target | 20% | $0.78 |
| FAMAS | Neural Net | 20% | $0.74 |
| P2000 | Handgun | 20% | $0.61 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Negev | Loudmouth’s range of 0.14–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1450 | 0.0098 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2451 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5392 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8039 |
“Not reachable” means Negev | Loudmouth’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Negev | Loudmouth is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.78 | −$2.32 |
| Field-Tested | $0.84 | −$2.26 |
| Well-Worn | $0.89 | −$2.21 |
| Minimal Wear | $11.99 | +$8.89 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.