How to Trade Up to MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart drops from Falchion Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $3.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.38 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -54% $-1.62 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart costs $1.28 outright, against $3.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Falchion Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart specifically.
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
Nova | Ranger
P90 | Elite Build
UMP-45 | Riot
UMP-45 | Riot
Nova | Ranger
P90 | Elite Build
USP-S | Torque12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Falchion Case draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyo | 20% | $3.21 |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dartyour target | 20% | $1.28 |
| FAMAS | Neural Net | 20% | $0.90 |
| Negev | Loudmouth | 20% | $0.81 |
| P2000 | Handgun | 20% | $0.69 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart’s range of 0.00–0.50. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0700 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2200 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5300 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8300 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4750 | 0.9500 |
“Not reachable” means MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.28 | −$1.72 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.31 | −$1.69 |
| Well-Worn | $1.46 | −$1.54 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.12 | −$0.88 |
| Factory New | $6.42 | +$3.42 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.