How to Trade Up to M4A4 | Bullet Rain
M4A4 | Bullet Rain drops from eSports 2014 Summer CaseeSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, eSports 2014 Summer Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 50% 1 in 2
- Contract cost from
- $10570.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $7619.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -27.9% $-2950.50 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested M4A4 | Bullet Rain costs $7851.00 outright, against $10570.00 for a contract with a 50% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from eSports 2014 Summer CaseeSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case or eSports 2014 Summer Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 50% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A4 | Bullet Rain specifically.
Nova | Bloomstick
AUG | Bengal Tiger
Nova | Bloomstick
AUG | Bengal Tiger
AUG | Bengal Tiger
Nova | Bloomstick
P2000 | Corticera
P2000 | Corticera
AWP | Corticera
AWP | Corticera
AUG | Bengal Tiger
Nova | Bloomstick4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from eSports 2014 Summer CaseeSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case / eSports 2014 Summer Case draws uniformly from every Covert Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A4 | Bullet Rain is one of 2 equally likely results. These are the other 1.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Bullet Rainyour target | 50% | $7851.00 |
| AK-47 | Jaguar | 50% | $7388.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A4 | Bullet Rain’s range of 0.02–0.46. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0450 | 0.0568 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2045 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5568 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.8977 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4550 | 0.9886 |
“Not reachable” means M4A4 | Bullet Rain’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A4 | Bullet Rain is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $7851.00 | −$2719.00 |
| Well-Worn | $8349.00 | −$2221.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $8554.00 | −$2016.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $12677.00 | +$2107.00 |
| Factory New | $24239.00 | +$13669.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.