How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Bright Water
M4A1-S | Bright Water drops from Operation Bravo Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $40.00 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $21.19 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -47% $-18.81 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested M4A1-S | Bright Water costs $33.98 outright, against $40.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Bravo Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Bright Water specifically.
UMP-45 | Bone Pile
G3SG1 | Demeter
UMP-45 | Bone Pile
Nova | Tempest
Galil AR | Shattered
Dual Berettas | Black Limba
Galil AR | Shattered
G3SG1 | Demeter
Nova | Tempest
G3SG1 | Demeter
Galil AR | Shattered
Dual Berettas | Black Limba12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Bravo Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Bright Water is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Bright Wateryour target | 25% | $33.98 |
| USP-S | Overgrowth | 25% | $18.03 |
| MAC-10 | Graven | 25% | $16.69 |
| M4A4 | Zirka | 25% | $16.06 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Bright Water’s range of 0.10–0.22. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | — | not reachable |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1250 | 0.2083 |
| Field-Tested | 0.1850 | 0.7083 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Bright Water’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Bright Water is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $33.98 | −$6.02 |
| Minimal Wear | $42.56 | +$2.56 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.