How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Fallout Warning
XM1014 | Fallout Warning drops from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package, DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package, ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $2450.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1004.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -59% $-1445.33 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | Fallout Warning costs $1084.00 outright, against $2450.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package or DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package or ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Fallout Warning specifically.
Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert
Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert
Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert
MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert
PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert
MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert
MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert
Sawed-Off | Irradiated Alert
PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert
PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert
MAG-7 | Irradiated Alert
PP-Bizon | Irradiated Alert3 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from ESL One Cologne 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package / DreamHack 2014 Nuke Souvenir Package / ESL One Katowice 2015 Nuke Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Nuke Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Nuke Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Nuke Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Fallout Warning is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| XM1014 | Fallout Warningyour target | 33.33% | $1084.00 |
| P90 | Fallout Warning | 33.33% | $984.00 |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning | 33.33% | $946.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Fallout Warning’s range of 0.06–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0068 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.0676 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2770 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4797 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7635 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Fallout Warning’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Fallout Warning is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1084.00 | −$1366.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1302.00 | −$1148.00 |
| Well-Worn | $2324.00 | −$126.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $3744.00 | +$1294.00 |
| Factory New | $9327.00 | +$6877.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.