How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Neo-Noir
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir drops from Gallery CaseGallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, Gallery Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $550.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $428.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -22.1% $-121.67 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred UMP-45 | Neo-Noir costs $346.00 outright, against $550.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Gallery CaseGallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case or Gallery Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Neo-Noir specifically.
P90 | Randy Rush
P90 | Randy Rush
P90 | Randy Rush
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit
SSG 08 | Rapid Transit
Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike
M4A4 | Turbine
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Gallery CaseGallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case / Gallery Case draws uniformly from every Classified skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Neo-Noir is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | The Outsiders | 33.33% | $551.00 |
| P250 | Epicenter | 33.33% | $388.00 |
| UMP-45 | Neo-Noiryour target | 33.33% | $346.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Neo-Noir’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Neo-Noir’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Neo-Noir is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $346.00 | −$204.00 |
| Well-Worn | $375.00 | −$175.00 |
| Field-Tested | $470.00 | −$80.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1065.00 | +$515.00 |
| Factory New | $2502.00 | +$1952.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.