How to Trade Up to Sawed-Off | Highwayman
Sawed-Off | Highwayman drops from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $7.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3.73 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -46.7% $-3.27 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Sawed-Off | Highwayman costs $1.14 outright, against $7.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Sawed-Off | Highwayman specifically.
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
MAG-7 | Firestarter
G3SG1 | Murky
MP9 | Dart
MAG-7 | Firestarter
G3SG1 | Murky
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Vanguard Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so Sawed-Off | Highwayman is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Basilisk | 25% | $7.84 |
| M4A4 | Griffin | 25% | $3.25 |
| Glock-18 | Grinder | 25% | $2.68 |
| Sawed-Off | Highwaymanyour target | 25% | $1.14 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Sawed-Off | Highwayman’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means Sawed-Off | Highwayman’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Sawed-Off | Highwayman is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1.14 | −$5.86 |
| Field-Tested | $1.42 | −$5.58 |
| Well-Worn | $1.54 | −$5.46 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.27 | −$4.73 |
| Factory New | $7.27 | +$0.27 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.