How to Trade Up to MP7 | Tall Grass
MP7 | Tall Grass drops from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $280.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $225.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -19.6% $-55.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred MP7 | Tall Grass costs $175.00 outright, against $280.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Tall Grass specifically.
P90 | Ancient Earth
SG 553 | Lush Ruins
P90 | Ancient Earth
Nova | Army Sheen
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed
R8 Revolver | Night
Nova | Army Sheen
SG 553 | Lush Ruins
SG 553 | Lush Ruins
P90 | Ancient Earth
Nova | Army Sheen
SG 553 | Lush Ruins11 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Ancient Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Ancient Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Ancient Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Ancient Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade SMG skin in the pool, so MP7 | Tall Grass is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| CZ75-Auto | Silver | 25% | $337.00 |
| P2000 | Panther Camo | 25% | $206.00 |
| G3SG1 | Ancient Ritual | 25% | $182.00 |
| MP7 | Tall Grassyour target | 25% | $175.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Tall Grass’s range of 0.00–0.65. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0538 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1692 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4077 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6385 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5500 | 0.8462 |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Tall Grass’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Tall Grass is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $175.00 | −$105.00 |
| Field-Tested | $221.00 | −$59.00 |
| Well-Worn | $282.00 | +$2.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $302.00 | +$22.00 |
| Factory New | $1186.00 | +$906.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.