How to Trade Up to MP7 | Fade
MP7 | Fade drops from London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package, Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Inferno Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $540.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $368.33 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -31.8% $-171.67 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $540.00 and the outcome pool averages $368.33, so it loses $171.67 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package or Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package or Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Inferno Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MP7 | Fade specifically.
SSG 08 | Hand Brake
USP-S | Check Engine
USP-S | Check Engine
USP-S | Check Engine
SSG 08 | Hand Brake
M4A4 | Converter
SSG 08 | Hand Brake
Sawed-Off | Brake Light
M4A4 | Converter
Sawed-Off | Brake Light
M4A4 | Converter
USP-S | Check Engine4 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from London 2018 Inferno Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package / Berlin 2019 Inferno Souvenir Package / Stockholm 2021 Inferno Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Inferno Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Inferno Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Inferno Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted SMG skin in the pool, so MP7 | Fade is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MP7 | Fadeyour target | 33.33% | $759.00 |
| AK-47 | Safety Net | 33.33% | $267.00 |
| P250 | Vino Primo | 33.33% | $79.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MP7 | Fade’s range of 0.00–0.25. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1400 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.4400 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2000 | 0.8000 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MP7 | Fade’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MP7 | Fade is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $759.00 | +$219.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $793.00 | +$253.00 |
| Factory New | $1778.00 | +$1238.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.