How to Trade Up to MAC-10 | Saibā Oni
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni drops from Gallery Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.60 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.82 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -48.7% $-0.78 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested MAC-10 | Saibā Oni costs $0.86 outright, against $1.60 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Gallery Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MAC-10 | Saibā Oni specifically.
MP5-SD | Statics
SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer
MP5-SD | Statics
USP-S | 27
M249 | Hypnosis
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti
Desert Eagle | Calligraffiti
AUG | Luxe Trim
USP-S | 27
R8 Revolver | Tango
AUG | Luxe Trim
AUG | Luxe Trim12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Gallery Case draws uniformly from every Restricted skin in the pool, so MAC-10 | Saibā Oni is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Turbine | 20% | $1.01 |
| SSG 08 | Rapid Transit | 20% | $0.99 |
| MAC-10 | Saibā Oniyour target | 20% | $0.86 |
| Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike | 20% | $0.76 |
| P90 | Randy Rush | 20% | $0.50 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MAC-10 | Saibā Oni’s range of 0.00–0.66. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0530 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.4015 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.6288 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5550 | 0.8409 |
“Not reachable” means MAC-10 | Saibā Oni’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MAC-10 | Saibā Oni is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $0.86 | −$0.74 |
| Battle-Scarred | $0.86 | −$0.74 |
| Well-Worn | $0.92 | −$0.68 |
| Minimal Wear | $2.16 | +$0.56 |
| Factory New | $3.88 | +$2.28 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.