How to Trade Up to MAC-10 | Candy Apple
MAC-10 | Candy Apple drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package, DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package, MLG Columbus 2016 Train Souvenir Package, Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package, Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package, Krakow 2017 Train Souvenir Package, Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package, London 2018 Train Souvenir Package, Katowice 2019 Train Souvenir Package, Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Consumer Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $0.30 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.14 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -53.3% $-0.16 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Minimal Wear MAC-10 | Candy Apple costs $0.22 outright, against $0.30 for a contract with a 16.67% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Consumer Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package or ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package or DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package or MLG Columbus 2016 Train Souvenir Package or Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package or Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package or Krakow 2017 Train Souvenir Package or Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package or London 2018 Train Souvenir Package or Katowice 2019 Train Souvenir Package or Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at MAC-10 | Candy Apple specifically.
Five-SeveN | Forest Night
G3SG1 | Polar Camo
Nova | Polar Mesh
G3SG1 | Polar Camo
Dual Berettas | Colony
Nova | Polar Mesh
PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed
Five-SeveN | Forest Night
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT
Nova | Polar Mesh
UMP-45 | Urban DDPAT
G3SG1 | Polar Camo12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package / ESL One Cologne 2015 Train Souvenir Package / DreamHack Cluj-Napoca 2015 Train Souvenir Package / MLG Columbus 2016 Train Souvenir Package / Cologne 2016 Train Souvenir Package / Atlanta 2017 Train Souvenir Package / Krakow 2017 Train Souvenir Package / Boston 2018 Train Souvenir Package / London 2018 Train Souvenir Package / Katowice 2019 Train Souvenir Package / Berlin 2019 Train Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Industrial Grade SMG skin in the pool, so MAC-10 | Candy Apple is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Candy Appleyour target | 16.67% | $0.22 |
| M4A4 | Urban DDPAT | 16.67% | $0.14 |
| P90 | Ash Wood | 16.67% | $0.14 |
| P250 | Metallic DDPAT | 16.67% | $0.13 |
| SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber | 16.67% | $0.12 |
| MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT | 16.67% | $0.12 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to MAC-10 | Candy Apple’s range of 0.00–0.30. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.1167 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.3667 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2250 | 0.7500 |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means MAC-10 | Candy Apple’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What MAC-10 | Candy Apple is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Minimal Wear | $0.22 | −$0.08 |
| Field-Tested | $0.24 | −$0.06 |
| Factory New | $0.40 | +$0.10 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.