How to Trade Up to M4A4 | Griffin
M4A4 | Griffin drops from Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseOperation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, Operation Vanguard Weapon Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 25% 1 in 4
- Contract cost from
- $710.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $371.50 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -47.7% $-338.50 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred M4A4 | Griffin costs $326.00 outright, against $710.00 for a contract with a 25% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseOperation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case or Operation Vanguard Weapon Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 25% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A4 | Griffin specifically.
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
MAG-7 | Firestarter
G3SG1 | Murky
MP9 | Dart
MAG-7 | Firestarter
G3SG1 | Murky
MAG-7 | Firestarter
MP9 | Dart
UMP-45 | Delusion
Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard
G3SG1 | Murky7 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseOperation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case / Operation Vanguard Weapon Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A4 | Griffin is one of 4 equally likely results. These are the other 3.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Basilisk | 25% | $778.00 |
| M4A4 | Griffinyour target | 25% | $326.00 |
| Glock-18 | Grinder | 25% | $268.00 |
| Sawed-Off | Highwayman | 25% | $114.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A4 | Griffin’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means M4A4 | Griffin’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A4 | Griffin is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $326.00 | −$384.00 |
| Field-Tested | $337.00 | −$373.00 |
| Well-Worn | $557.00 | −$153.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $926.00 | +$216.00 |
| Factory New | $11593.00 | +$10883.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.