How to Trade Up to M4A4 | Evil Daimyo
M4A4 | Evil Daimyo drops from Falchion Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.60 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.20 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -53.8% $-1.40 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $2.60 and the outcome pool averages $1.20, so it loses $1.40 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Falchion Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A4 | Evil Daimyo specifically.
P90 | Elite Build
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot
P90 | Elite Build
UMP-45 | Riot
P90 | Elite Build
Nova | Ranger
Nova | Ranger
UMP-45 | Riot12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Falchion Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A4 | Evil Daimyo is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A4 | Evil Daimyoyour target | 20% | $2.73 |
| MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart | 20% | $1.08 |
| Negev | Loudmouth | 20% | $0.82 |
| FAMAS | Neural Net | 20% | $0.76 |
| P2000 | Handgun | 20% | $0.63 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A4 | Evil Daimyo’s range of 0.00–0.52. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0673 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.2115 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.5096 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.7981 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.4850 | 0.9327 |
“Not reachable” means M4A4 | Evil Daimyo’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A4 | Evil Daimyo is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $2.73 | +$0.13 |
| Battle-Scarred | $3.05 | +$0.45 |
| Well-Worn | $3.09 | +$0.49 |
| Minimal Wear | $4.54 | +$1.94 |
| Factory New | $7.57 | +$4.97 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.