How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Nitro
M4A1-S | Nitro drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 100% 1 in 1
- Contract cost from
- $1.30 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.44 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -66.2% $-0.86 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred M4A1-S | Nitro costs $0.44 outright, against $1.30 for a contract with a 100% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 100% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Nitro specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Nitro is one of 1 equally likely results. These are the other 0.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Nitroyour target | 100% | $0.44 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Nitro’s range of 0.06–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0068 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.0676 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2770 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4797 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7635 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Nitro’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Nitro is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.44 | −$0.86 |
| Well-Worn | $0.45 | −$0.85 |
| Field-Tested | $0.48 | −$0.82 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.03 | −$0.27 |
| Factory New | $10.00 | +$8.70 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.