How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Nitro
M4A1-S | Nitro drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 16.67% 1 in 6
- Contract cost from
- $100.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $285.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +185% +$185.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred M4A1-S | Nitro costs $42.00 outright, against $100.00 for a contract with a 16.67% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 16.67% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Nitro specifically.
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
PP-Bizon | Brass
PP-Bizon | Brass
Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz
P90 | Teardown
Sawed-Off | Full Stop
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
SG 553 | Damascus Steel
PP-Bizon | Brass
USP-S | Night Ops
FAMAS | Teardown
FAMAS | Teardown12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Nitro is one of 6 equally likely results. These are the other 5.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| MAG-7 | Bulldozer | 16.67% | $1464.00 |
| AWP | Pit Viper | 16.67% | $89.00 |
| P2000 | Amber Fade | 16.67% | $50.00 |
| M4A1-S | Nitroyour target | 16.67% | $42.00 |
| Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz | 16.67% | $34.00 |
| Tec-9 | Red Quartz | 16.67% | $31.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Nitro’s range of 0.06–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0650 | 0.0068 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.0676 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2770 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4797 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7635 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Nitro’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Nitro is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $42.00 | −$58.00 |
| Well-Worn | $43.00 | −$57.00 |
| Field-Tested | $44.00 | −$56.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $132.00 | +$32.00 |
| Factory New | $1707.00 | +$1607.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.