How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Liquidation
M4A1-S | Liquidation drops from Sealed Genesis Terminal, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.80 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.48 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -40% $-0.32 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $0.80 and the outcome pool averages $0.48, so it loses $0.32 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Sealed Genesis Terminal. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Liquidation specifically.
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
MP9 | Broken Record
AUG | Trigger Discipline
MP9 | Broken Record
SCAR-20 | Caged
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
MP9 | Broken Record
P2000 | Red Wing
MAG-7 | MAGnitude
P2000 | Red Wing
MP5-SD | Focus
MP5-SD | Focus12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Sealed Genesis Terminal draws uniformly from every Restricted skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Liquidation is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Liquidationyour target | 20% | $0.89 |
| MAC-10 | Cat Fight | 20% | $0.40 |
| Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes | 20% | $0.38 |
| Nova | Ocular | 20% | $0.38 |
| UMP-45 | Continuum | 20% | $0.35 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Liquidation’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Liquidation’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Liquidation is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.89 | +$0.09 |
| Well-Worn | $1.25 | +$0.45 |
| Field-Tested | $1.94 | +$1.14 |
| Minimal Wear | $4.15 | +$3.35 |
| Factory New | $9.07 | +$8.27 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.