How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Imminent Danger
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger drops from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package, Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Classified skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 100% 1 in 1
- Contract cost from
- $173940.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $70855.00 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -59.3% $-103085.00 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested M4A1-S | Imminent Danger costs $70855.00 outright, against $173940.00 for a contract with a 100% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Classified, all from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package or Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 100% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Imminent Danger specifically.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Stockholm 2021 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Rio 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Paris 2023 Vertigo Souvenir Package / Copenhagen 2024 Vertigo Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Covert Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Imminent Danger is one of 1 equally likely results. These are the other 0.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Imminent Dangeryour target | 100% | $70855.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Imminent Danger’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Imminent Danger’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Imminent Danger is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $70855.00 | −$103085.00 |
| Battle-Scarred | $71637.00 | −$102303.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $97886.00 | −$76054.00 |
| Factory New | $147619.00 | −$26321.00 |
| Well-Worn | $773134.00 | +$599194.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.