How to Trade Up to M4A1-S | Black Lotus
M4A1-S | Black Lotus drops from Kilowatt Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $3.00 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $3.08 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- +2.7% +$0.08 per contract
This contract is EV-positive at floor prices. Ten cheapest inputs cost $3.00 against an outcome pool averaging $3.08 — $0.08 per contract. Individual rolls still vary; M4A1-S | Black Lotus itself is only 33.33% of them.
The contract
10 inputs, all Restricted, all from Kilowatt Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at M4A1-S | Black Lotus specifically.
Five-SeveN | Hybrid
MP7 | Just Smile
Five-SeveN | Hybrid
MP7 | Just Smile
Sawed-Off | Analog Input
Sawed-Off | Analog Input
Sawed-Off | Analog Input
M4A4 | Etch Lord
M4A4 | Etch Lord
Five-SeveN | Hybrid
M4A4 | Etch Lord
MP7 | Just Smile12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Kilowatt Case draws uniformly from every Classified Rifle skin in the pool, so M4A1-S | Black Lotus is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Black Lotusyour target | 33.33% | $3.82 |
| USP-S | Jawbreaker | 33.33% | $2.82 |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus | 33.33% | $2.60 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to M4A1-S | Black Lotus’s range of 0.00–0.70. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0500 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1571 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3786 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5929 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5750 | 0.8214 |
“Not reachable” means M4A1-S | Black Lotus’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What M4A1-S | Black Lotus is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $3.82 | +$0.82 |
| Field-Tested | $3.94 | +$0.94 |
| Well-Worn | $4.33 | +$1.33 |
| Minimal Wear | $6.08 | +$3.08 |
| Factory New | $10.55 | +$7.55 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.