How to Trade Up to Galil AR | Connexion
Galil AR | Connexion drops from Fracture Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $0.90 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.37 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -58.9% $-0.53 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred Galil AR | Connexion costs $0.39 outright, against $0.90 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Fracture Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at Galil AR | Connexion specifically.
Negev | Ultralight
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
PP-Bizon | Runic
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
P90 | Freight
P2000 | Gnarled
PP-Bizon | Runic
Negev | Ultralight
P250 | Cassette
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty
P2000 | Gnarled12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Fracture Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so Galil AR | Connexion is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Galil AR | Connexionyour target | 20% | $0.39 |
| MP5-SD | Kitbash | 20% | $0.38 |
| MAC-10 | Allure | 20% | $0.37 |
| MAG-7 | Monster Call | 20% | $0.36 |
| Tec-9 | Brother | 20% | $0.36 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to Galil AR | Connexion’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means Galil AR | Connexion’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What Galil AR | Connexion is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $0.39 | −$0.51 |
| Field-Tested | $0.40 | −$0.50 |
| Well-Worn | $0.46 | −$0.44 |
| Minimal Wear | $0.78 | −$0.12 |
| Factory New | $2.61 | +$1.71 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.