How to Trade Up to FAMAS | Valence
FAMAS | Valence drops from Operation Wildfire Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $3.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.88 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -44.7% $-1.52 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred FAMAS | Valence costs $2.44 outright, against $3.40 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Wildfire Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at FAMAS | Valence specifically.
SSG 08 | Necropos
SSG 08 | Necropos
Dual Berettas | Cartel
Dual Berettas | Cartel
Tec-9 | Jambiya
Tec-9 | Jambiya
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone
SSG 08 | Necropos
Tec-9 | Jambiya
USP-S | Lead Conduit
USP-S | Lead Conduit
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Wildfire Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so FAMAS | Valence is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| FAMAS | Valenceyour target | 20% | $2.44 |
| Glock-18 | Royal Legion | 20% | $1.96 |
| MP7 | Impire | 20% | $1.72 |
| Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | 20% | $1.71 |
| MAG-7 | Praetorian | 20% | $1.56 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to FAMAS | Valence’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means FAMAS | Valence’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What FAMAS | Valence is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $2.44 | −$0.96 |
| Field-Tested | $3.25 | −$0.15 |
| Well-Worn | $3.63 | +$0.23 |
| Minimal Wear | $5.74 | +$2.34 |
| Factory New | $25.78 | +$22.38 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.