How to Trade Up to FAMAS | Valence
FAMAS | Valence drops from Operation Wildfire CaseOperation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, Operation Wildfire Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $380.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $214.80 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -43.5% $-165.20 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred FAMAS | Valence costs $300.00 outright, against $380.00 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Operation Wildfire CaseOperation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case or Operation Wildfire Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at FAMAS | Valence specifically.
Tec-9 | Jambiya
Dual Berettas | Cartel
Tec-9 | Jambiya
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone
SSG 08 | Necropos
Dual Berettas | Cartel
SSG 08 | Necropos
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone
USP-S | Lead Conduit
USP-S | Lead Conduit
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone
SSG 08 | Necropos12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Operation Wildfire CaseOperation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case / Operation Wildfire Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Rifle skin in the pool, so FAMAS | Valence is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| FAMAS | Valenceyour target | 20% | $300.00 |
| MP7 | Impire | 20% | $229.00 |
| Glock-18 | Royal Legion | 20% | $225.00 |
| MAG-7 | Praetorian | 20% | $160.00 |
| Five-SeveN | Triumvirate | 20% | $160.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to FAMAS | Valence’s range of 0.00–0.80. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0438 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1375 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3313 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5188 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6250 | 0.7813 |
“Not reachable” means FAMAS | Valence’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What FAMAS | Valence is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $300.00 | −$80.00 |
| Field-Tested | $333.00 | −$47.00 |
| Well-Worn | $339.00 | −$41.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $640.00 | +$260.00 |
| Factory New | $3431.00 | +$3051.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.