How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Ziggy
XM1014 | Ziggy drops from Spectrum 2 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $1.50 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.09 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -27.3% $-0.41 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Field-Tested XM1014 | Ziggy costs $1.09 outright, against $1.50 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Spectrum 2 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Ziggy specifically.
G3SG1 | Hunter
Sawed-Off | Morris
G3SG1 | Hunter
Sawed-Off | Morris
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal
AUG | Triqua
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal
AUG | Triqua
Glock-18 | Off World
Tec-9 | Cracked Opal
Glock-18 | Off World
SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Spectrum 2 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Ziggy is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| CZ75-Auto | Tacticat | 20% | $1.09 |
| UMP-45 | Exposure | 20% | $1.09 |
| XM1014 | Ziggyyour target | 20% | $1.09 |
| SG 553 | Phantom | 20% | $1.08 |
| MP9 | Goo | 20% | $1.08 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Ziggy’s range of 0.00–0.72. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0486 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1528 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3681 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5764 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.5850 | 0.8125 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Ziggy’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Ziggy is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Field-Tested | $1.09 | −$0.41 |
| Well-Worn | $1.12 | −$0.38 |
| Battle-Scarred | $1.16 | −$0.34 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.27 | −$0.23 |
| Factory New | $3.24 | +$1.74 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.