How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Monster Melt
XM1014 | Monster Melt drops from Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Package, Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Highlight Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1.80 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.56 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -13.3% $-0.24 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred XM1014 | Monster Melt costs $1.51 outright, against $1.80 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Package or Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Highlight Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Monster Melt specifically.
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
Nova | Wurst Hölle
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
Nova | Wurst Hölle
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
MAC-10 | Pipsqueak
Nova | Wurst Hölle8 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Package / Budapest 2025 Overpass Souvenir Highlight Package draws uniformly from every Restricted skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Monster Melt is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels | 33.33% | $1.61 |
| AUG | Eye of Zapems | 33.33% | $1.56 |
| XM1014 | Monster Meltyour target | 33.33% | $1.51 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Monster Melt’s range of 0.00–0.75. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0467 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1467 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3533 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5533 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6000 | 0.8000 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Monster Melt’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Monster Melt is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1.51 | −$0.29 |
| Well-Worn | $1.82 | +$0.02 |
| Field-Tested | $1.86 | +$0.06 |
| Minimal Wear | $3.44 | +$1.64 |
| Factory New | $6.93 | +$5.13 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.