How to Trade Up to XM1014 | Black Tie
XM1014 | Black Tie drops from Chroma 3 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Mil-Spec skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 20% 1 in 5
- Contract cost from
- $2.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $1.14 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -52.5% $-1.26 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred XM1014 | Black Tie costs $1.12 outright, against $2.40 for a contract with a 20% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Mil-Spec, all from Chroma 3 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 20% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at XM1014 | Black Tie specifically.
Sawed-Off | Fubar
P2000 | Oceanic
MP9 | Bioleak
Dual Berettas | Ventilators
SG 553 | Atlas
SG 553 | Atlas
P2000 | Oceanic
Dual Berettas | Ventilators
M249 | Spectre
G3SG1 | Orange Crash
MP9 | Bioleak
G3SG1 | Orange Crash12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Chroma 3 Case draws uniformly from every Restricted Shotgun skin in the pool, so XM1014 | Black Tie is one of 5 equally likely results. These are the other 4.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| Tec-9 | Re-Entry | 20% | $1.20 |
| Galil AR | Firefight | 20% | $1.15 |
| CZ75-Auto | Red Astor | 20% | $1.13 |
| XM1014 | Black Tieyour target | 20% | $1.12 |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader | 20% | $1.09 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to XM1014 | Black Tie’s range of 0.00–0.75. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0467 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1467 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3533 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5533 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6000 | 0.8000 |
“Not reachable” means XM1014 | Black Tie’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What XM1014 | Black Tie is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $1.12 | −$1.28 |
| Field-Tested | $1.20 | −$1.20 |
| Well-Worn | $1.25 | −$1.15 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.53 | −$0.87 |
| Factory New | $2.63 | +$0.23 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.