How to Trade Up to UMP-45 | Primal Saber
UMP-45 | Primal Saber drops from Chroma 3 Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from that same case. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $12.10 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $11.22 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -7.3% $-0.88 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred UMP-45 | Primal Saber costs $11.34 outright, against $12.10 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
10 inputs, all Restricted, all from Chroma 3 Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at UMP-45 | Primal Saber specifically.
Galil AR | Firefight
Tec-9 | Re-Entry
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader
Galil AR | Firefight
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader
Galil AR | Firefight
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor
SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader
XM1014 | Black Tie
XM1014 | Black Tie12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up finder to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Chroma 3 Case draws uniformly from every Classified SMG skin in the pool, so UMP-45 | Primal Saber is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| UMP-45 | Primal Saberyour target | 33.33% | $11.34 |
| P250 | Asiimov | 33.33% | $11.28 |
| AUG | Fleet Flock | 33.33% | $11.04 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to UMP-45 | Primal Saber’s range of 0.00–0.77. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0455 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1429 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.3442 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.5390 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.6100 | 0.7922 |
“Not reachable” means UMP-45 | Primal Saber’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What UMP-45 | Primal Saber is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $11.34 | −$0.76 |
| Field-Tested | $11.72 | −$0.38 |
| Well-Worn | $12.17 | +$0.07 |
| Minimal Wear | $12.31 | +$0.21 |
| Factory New | $17.33 | +$5.23 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.