How to Trade Up to SG 553 | Anodized Navy
SG 553 | Anodized Navy drops from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package, EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Industrial Grade skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $0.40 10 × cheapest input
- Expected value
- $0.26 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -35% $-0.14 per contract
This contract is EV-negative. The cheapest ten inputs cost $0.40 and the outcome pool averages $0.26, so it loses $0.14 per contract on average even before you account for hitting the wrong skin.
The contract
10 inputs, all Industrial Grade, all from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package or EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at SG 553 | Anodized Navy specifically.
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
XM1014 | Blue Steel
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
Desert Eagle | Mudder
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
Desert Eagle | Mudder
XM1014 | Blue Steel
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
XM1014 | Blue Steel
AWP | Safari Mesh12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from DreamHack 2013 Souvenir Package / EMS One 2014 Souvenir Package draws uniformly from every Mil-Spec Grade Rifle skin in the pool, so SG 553 | Anodized Navy is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| SG 553 | Anodized Navyyour target | 33.33% | $0.43 |
| USP-S | Night Ops | 33.33% | $0.19 |
| P90 | Teardown | 33.33% | $0.15 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to SG 553 | Anodized Navy’s range of 0.00–0.08. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.4375 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.0750 | 0.9375 |
| Field-Tested | — | not reachable |
| Well-Worn | — | not reachable |
| Battle-Scarred | — | not reachable |
“Not reachable” means SG 553 | Anodized Navy’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What SG 553 | Anodized Navy is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | $0.43 | +$0.03 |
| Minimal Wear | $1.08 | +$0.68 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.