How to Trade Up to P90 | Shapewood
P90 | Shapewood drops from Revolver CaseRevolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, Revolver Case, so any contract that can produce it needs 10 Restricted skins from those same cases. Here is what the contract costs, what else it can land on, and the input float you need for each exterior.
- Odds per contract
- 33.33% 1 in 3
- Contract cost from
- $1070.00 10× cheapest input
- Expected value
- $964.67 mean of the outcome pool
- Margin
- -9.8% $-105.33 per contract
Buying is cheaper than rolling. A Battle-Scarred P90 | Shapewood costs $828.00 outright, against $1070.00 for a contract with a 33.33% chance of producing one. Trade up for the process, not the value.
The contract
Ten inputs, all Restricted, all from Revolver CaseRevolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case or Revolver Case. Concentrating every input in one case is what keeps your odds at 33.33% — mixing cases splits the probability across both pools and lowers your chance at P90 | Shapewood specifically.
Five-SeveN | Retrobution
Five-SeveN | Retrobution
Negev | Power Loader
SG 553 | Tiger Moth
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod
SG 553 | Tiger Moth
Negev | Power Loader
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod
SG 553 | Tiger Moth
XM1014 | Teclu Burner
Tec-9 | Avalanche
PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod12 further eligible inputs are available — open the reverse trade-up calculator to price a full contract against your own inventory.
What else this contract can land on
A contract from Revolver CaseRevolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case / Revolver Case draws uniformly from every Classified SMG skin in the pool, so P90 | Shapewood is one of 3 equally likely results. These are the other 2.
| Outcome | Odds | Cheapest price |
|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Point Disarray | 33.33% | $1243.00 |
| P90 | Shapewoodyour target | 33.33% | $828.00 |
| G3SG1 | The Executioner | 33.33% | $823.00 |
Input float for each exterior
CS2 normalises float across a trade-up: each input’s float becomes a 0–1 position inside its own range, those are averaged, and the average is applied to P90 | Shapewood’s range of 0.00–1.00. To land a given exterior, your ten inputs must average the normalised float below.
| Target exterior | Output float | Required avg. input float |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.0350 | 0.0350 |
| Minimal Wear | 0.1100 | 0.1100 |
| Field-Tested | 0.2650 | 0.2650 |
| Well-Worn | 0.4150 | 0.4150 |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.7250 | 0.7250 |
“Not reachable” means P90 | Shapewood’s own float range never enters that exterior band — no combination of inputs can produce it.
What P90 | Shapewood is worth right now
Worth comparing against the contract cost above before you commit: buying the skin outright is frequently cheaper than rolling for it.
| Exterior | Price | vs. contract cost |
|---|---|---|
| Battle-Scarred | $828.00 | −$242.00 |
| Well-Worn | $876.00 | −$194.00 |
| Field-Tested | $985.00 | −$85.00 |
| Minimal Wear | $1154.00 | +$84.00 |
| Factory New | $2432.00 | +$1362.00 |
Build this contract
Price a full ten-slot contract against live inputs, set your own float values, and see the outcome odds update as you go.